© REUTERS/Tobias Schwarz

At best, Angela Merkel sounds lukewarm when she praises her party’s Spitzenkandidat, or lead candidate, for the European Parliament elections.

“Manfred Weber will be a good president of the European Commission because he stands for a people’s Europe in which national and European identity aren’t in contradiction,” Merkel said at a campaign rally in Zagreb on May 18—one of only two appearances that Germany’s chancellor was willing to put in for Weber.

Still, until election day, Weber can be certain of Merkel’s support. Even when the polls will have closed on May 26, she will stand by him. Crunch time won’t come until two days later, when the EU’s heads of state and government assemble in Brussels to decide who they want to nominate for the presidency of the next European Commission and other EU top jobs.

Regaining the Upper Hand

With this early meeting, national leaders hope to regain the upper hand of nominating the commission president. The European Parliament, which has insisted that it will accept only a successful Spitzenkandidat, will simply lack the time to build effective alliances.

“I call a special #EUCO on 28 May to start the process to nominate the next leaders of the EU institutions,” Donald Tusk, the current president of the European Council, announced by tweet in early May. “This should be swift, effective and in accordance with our Treaties. If consensus proves difficult, I will not shy away from putting these decisions to a vote in June.”

Despite Tusk’s words, the May summit promises to be long and intense, an interplay of front-stage drama and backroom negotiations, with plenty of arm-twisting thrown in. Up for grabs are four Brussels top jobs: the presidents of the European Commission, of the European Council, and the European Parliament as well as the EU’s top diplomat’s slot. And if that wasn’t complicated enough, the European Central Bank (ECB) also needs a new president—arguably the most powerful post of them all.

Merkel likes Weber as a person; she appreciates his calm and conciliatory attitude as well as the expertise in EU power games he has gained over 15 years in the European Parliament. At only 46, Weber has succeeded to get himself nominated as Spitzenkandidat of the European People’s Party, the oldest and largest group in the European Parliament that brings together Christian Democrats and conservatives from across the EU. And Merkel has publicly stated that as a good member of the EPP, she will stand up for Weber.

Yet EU arithmetic says that no country can aspire to more than one top job at a time. Nationality counts first, but geographic balance also needs to be respected between east and west, south and north, and at least one position has to be filled with a woman. Merkel could decide to really push Weber as the first German president of the European Commission in over 50 years. Alternatively, she could go for the ECB presidency, which comes with an alluringly long eight-years term.

Succeeding Super Mario

It’s a post that Germany has coveted since the inception of the euro and never got, despite being the eurozone’s largest economy. In 2011, then head of the Bundesbank Axel Weber was tripped up by the Greek crisis. In came Mario Draghi, later nicknamed Super Mario, who kept Greece in the eurozone and saved the common currency by promising to do “whatever it takes.”

Eight years on, Jens Weidmann, the current president of the Bundesbank, is warming up to succeed Draghi. Weidmann, 51, has conspicuously softened his stance on monetary support policy for weaker eurozone economies. Where he once opposed instruments like quantitative easing or the purchase of sovereign bonds and harshly criticized the ECB’s low interest rates, Weidmann now points to continuing downward pressure on prices to justify loose monetary policy, at least for now.

Recently, the head of the Bundesbank was endorsed by outgoing Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, who said that as “a convinced European and experienced central banker,” Weidmann was suitable for the office of ECB president. Italy, once a fierce and powerful opponent of Weidmann, also seems to be coming around. Economy Minister Giovanni Tria said in early 2019 that there was no reason to focus too much on earlier positions as both the world and people changed over time.

Most importantly, Weidmann is close to Merkel—prior to the Bundesbank, he spent five years in the chancellery as her economic adviser. It is conspicuous, too, that her government has not nominated any German candidates to important European banking jobs recently. Clearly, Berlin did not want to jeopardize Weidmann’s chances at the ECB.

Uncertain Outcome

Germany has no obvious candidates for the presidencies of the European Parliament, the European Council (Merkel has strongly denied any personal ambitions), or the EU’s foreign affairs representative. But even with only two German candidates competing for jobs, the outcome of the coming EU summit is highly uncertain.

Weber has annoyed Merkel with his opposition to the Nordstream 2 pipeline and to the accession talks with Turkey, so how far will she be willing to go to push for his nomination? There is also the fact that France’s President Emmanuel Macron is fiercely opposed to the Spitzenkandidat system and may be willing to trade his support for Weidmann at the ECB against Merkel’s help to get French Commissioner Michel Barnier appointed as president of the Commission.

Then again, even without the United Kingdom, there are still 25 other national leaders who will demand their say, creating some impossible-to-predict summit dynamics. It’s conceivable that neither German will get anything, or that there is no agreement and that Tusk will have to call another summit.

Only one thing seems reasonably certain, and that is a political paradox: the more is talked about Merkel shifting her support from Weber to Weidmann, the less she can afford to do so—and so the less it is likely to happen.

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© REUTERS/Fabrizio Bensch

Back in the summer of 2016, the winds of change were sweeping across Europe. In their shock over the Brexit referendum, European Union leaders promised deep reform: the EU would make such a leap in efficiency, democracy, and cohesion that no other country would ever be tempted to leave. “We got the message!” they told the public.

Almost three years on and, at least in Germany, voters are facing one of the dullest European Parliament election campaigns ever. No big plan for the EU’s future has emerged that politicians or citizens could passionately debate; no controversies over major policy decisions; not even a heated battle over who will lead the EU in the future. Only the Greens and the right-wing populist Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) are even talking about policies on their campaign posters.

Just take a look at the parties currently governing in Angela Merkel’s grand coalition, the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the center-left Social Democrats (SPD). “Peace can’t be taken for granted” is one of the uninspiring CDU election slogans; “Prosperity can’t be taken for granted” another. Merkel herself, having stepped down as party leader in December 2018, initially refused to even take part in the campaign. In the end, she grudgingly agreed to two appearances (although one of them is in Croatia rather than Germany).

Domestic Faces Prevail

Not that you would guess it, but Germany’s conservatives actually have a big stake in this election. Their top candidate Manfred Weber stands a reasonable chance to become the next president of the European Commission. That would make him the first German to lead the Commission since Walter Hallstein was appointed in 1958.

Weber was nominated as Spitzenkandidat by the European People’s Party, which will likely remain the largest group in the new European Parliament. While this does not oblige the heads of government to nominate Weber, a good election result would translate into considerable political pressure to do so.

Weber works hard on the campaign trail, crisscrossing Germany and the EU for numerous appearances and speeches. Having spent 15 years as an MEP, he is also extremely well versed in the ins and outs of Brussels. Weber is smart, decent, and personable. But one thing he is not: a person who can inspire people to believe in Europe. His party seems to be aware of his lack of charisma: even in his homeland Germany, the Spitzenkandidat rates only small-format campaign posters. “For Germany’s Future. Our Europe,” the slogan says.

The second Spitzenkandidat who has a realistic chance of becoming European Commission president, is Frans Timmermans, current vice-president of the Commission and former Dutch foreign minister, who is standing for the center-left Party of European Socialists, the European Parliament’s second-largest group. Timmermans is far more passionate and eloquent than Weber, but Germany’s Social Democrats haven’t even put him on a poster. While they back his nomination in Brussels, in Germany they only show German candidates.

EU Reform Is Dead

It’s not just the faces on the posters that seem curiously lacking a European flavor. There seems to be very little debate over the big European issues as well. Little mention is made of Brexit, the reform ideas of France’s President Emmanuel Macron, the rift between eastern and western Europe, the risk of another eurocrisis, or the uncertainty surrounding transatlantic relations. Indeed, after the first shock, the Brexit saga seems to have actually contributed to the stagnation.

So little has come of the pledges made in the wake of the Brexit vote in 2016. The EU summit in the Romanian city of Sibiu on May 9, originally scheduled to take place after Brexit, was supposed to provide the opportunity to EU leaders to open a new chapter in European integration. In reality, however, EU reform is dead for now, while the United Kingdom has still not managed to leave the union.

The miserable spectacle of Britain’s political elite mismanaging Brexit in fact let the EU of the hook: in most countries, approval rates for “Europe” have risen through no particular merit of the EU leaders, but because nobody wants to be caught in the same situation as the British. Even right-wing populists who used to be rabidly anti-European have stopped calling for an exit the EU. Instead, they now plan to join forces in Brussels to weaken the EU from the inside—a project that, given their continued rise in popularity, could prove just as dangerous to Europe’s future as a crumbling membership.

European leaders clearly share responsibility for not seizing the chance for reform that arose after 2016. But nobody is more to blame than Angela Merkel who let every opportunity to embrace change slip by. It seems fitting, then, that the most interesting issue that has emerged from the European election campaign is one that at first sight has nothing to do with EU politics: when will Merkel finally leave office?

The post A Desperately Dull Campaign appeared first on Berlin Policy Journal - Blog.

© REUTERS/ Eva Plevier

The European center-right took on a troublemaker in its own ranks on Wednesday when the European People’s Party (EPP) indefinitely suspended Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán’s populist Fidesz party. Fidesz will lose its voting rights within the EPP and its ability to put forward candidates for party positions.

In an effort to show that the EU’s largest political family can rein in its own extremes, Orbán’s party was put on notice—and expulsion after the European elections in May remains an option. But by not kicking out Orbán’s party, the EPP avoided, for now, giving a boost to the populist and anti-migration forces in Europe that are expected to do well at the ballot boxes. And Orbán has been able to spin to the ruling to show that he is still in control, calling the compromise a “good decision” and noting that the motion says Fidesz and the EPP “jointly” agreed on it.

In a heated three-hour debate among the around 260 national party delegates in Brussels on Wednesday, even Orbán’s closest allies within EPP supported a compromise decision to suspend Fidesz indefinitely. EPP members had gradually grown frustrated with Orbán, who has eroded democratic freedoms and the rule of law back home while criticizing EPP leaders for being weak and supporting migration. In his latest stunt, which propelled the EPP into action, Orbán oversaw a campaign against EU commission president Jean-Claude Juncker, a fellow EPP member and Orbán critic. In recent weeks, thirteen national parties have called for Fidesz to be expelled from the EPP.

The EPP and Fidesz agreed on an “evaluation committee” led by former EU council chief Herman Van Rompuy and including former Austrian prime minister Wolfgang Schuessel. They are tasked with determining whether Fidesz respects the rule of law and adheres to conditions set out by the EPP’s lead candidate in the European elections, Manfred Weber. The conditions include ending the anti-Juncker campaign and allowing the Central European University, a prestigious school founded by US billionaire George Soros and targeted by Orbán, to remain in Budapest. (Schuessel was himself rebuffed by the EU in 2000 for forming a government coalition with the far-right Freedom party, with a three-member team scrutinizing his decision.)

A Punishment or a Reprieve? 

But the EPP allowed Orbán to turn the suspension into a victory march. The wording of the document adopted by 190 members of the EPP’s political assembly lets Fidesz argue to his voters that, in fact, it decided to suspend itself. “We cannot be expelled, and we cannot be suspended,” Orbán told reporters after the meeting. Earlier in the day, Orbán had threatened to pull his party from EPP if it was suspended unilaterally, giving him leverage in negotiating his own punishment.

Back in Hungary, the network of pro-government media promoted Orbán’s interpretations of events as a victory. “No expulsion, no suspension,” was the headline of the news website Origo. “The pro-migration action has failed, they could not push Fidesz out,” was the title of another story. The public broadcaster has called EPP’s punishment a “huge victory”.

Orbán announced at his press conference that he is also setting up a three-member group with MEP Jozsef Szajer, EU State Minister Judit Vajda, and Katalin Novak, the state secretary for family issues, to report back after the elections on the issue of whether Fidesz should remain in the EPP. The team would be negotiating with the Van Rompuy group, Orbán said, although the EPP’s internal document on the decision mentions no need for negotiations. In Orbán’s world, it is Fidesz that decided to suspend its membership to assess whether EPP is true to its Christian democratic values. Orbán even told reporters: “We never had any campaign against Juncker,” giving an insight into the absurdity of the Hungarian government’s propaganda.

“Thirteen parties wanted to push the right wing of the party out,” Orbán said at the presser, arguing that it was thanks to his negotiations and willingness to compromise that party unity was preserved. “I hope we can lead a united campaign, and liberal ideas will not dominate the party, but it will be a balanced party family with Christian conservatives inside it,” he added.

Eyeing the Commission Presidency

Weber, who hails from the Bavarian Christian Social Union (CSU) party, was keen to put the “Orbán problem” behind him as his campaign picks up for the EU commission presidency. The EPP camp is now trying to shift the harsh spotlight onto its rivals, arguing that the Socialists need to rein in their Romanian member party, the ruling Social Democrats, who have curbed judicial independence in Bucharest, and that the Liberals need to scrutinize their Czech member which has been dogged by corruption.

How did Orbán escape expulsion? He had threatened last year that he could easily set up an anti-migration political alliance outside of the EPP with like-minded parties, and his EPP colleagues took notice. There was real concern in the EPP that expelling Fidesz now could not only send the wrong message about party unity in the middle of the European campaign, but could also give a boost to populist, anti-migration parties in the run up to the vote.

Orbán has openly hinted at setting up a new party with Poland’s ruling Law and Justice party (PiS), which is also shunned by the EU for putting the judiciary under political control. Italy’s interior minister Matteo Salvini, whose anti-migration League party is expected to be the second biggest national party in the next European Parliament, has also reached out to PiS and praised Orbán.

The compromise allows both Orbán and the EPP to await the final results of the European elections and rethink their strategy. Fidesz MEPs will continue to be allowed to sit with the EPP in the European Parliament for the few remaining sessions in this term. As the EPP is expected to lose dozens of MEPs in the next elections, Fidesz MEPs could provide useful support in the future for Weber’s quest to find a majority that supports his bid for the commission presidency. 

By sidelining Orbán, Weber also aims convince the other EU leaders—whose backing he needs for the commission top job—that he can rein in the populists. Indeed, Weber wanted to demonstrate to his potential allies that Orbán will not push the EPP to the right, and Hungary’s self-described “illiberal” leader cannot set the agenda for the entire party. “Fidesz will have no say any more on the EPP’s political approach,” Weber told reporters after the meeting.

However, critics—even within his own party—say Weber is not tough enough and the suspension only kicks the issue of dealing with Orbán further down the road. “Shameless move by Manfred Weber: a suspension just in time for the European elections, after nine years of attacks on rule of law by Orbán, and an evaluation in the fall, just before knowing if he needs Orbán’s votes to get the European Commission presidency,” former Green MEP Rui Tavares said in reaction to EPP’s rebuke. Tavares’s 2013 report in the European Parliament already warned about Orbán’s rolling back of democratic freedoms.

Despite Weber’s efforts, the questions persist: who is in charge of the EPP, and is the tail wagging the dog? 

The post Orbán on the Naughty Step appeared first on Berlin Policy Journal - Blog.

© REUTERS/Bernadett Szabo

When center-right EU presidential nominee Manfred Weber came to Budapest on Tuesday to meet with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, it wasn’t for a friendly chat.

Both men are members of the European People’s Party (EPP), a collection of mainstream conservative parties from across Europe. But in recent years and months, Orbán has been acting as an enfant terrible within the family. He has given speeches attacking the EPP for being too moderate, championing what he has called “illiberal democracy” and warning that Angela Merkel’s refugee policy will lead to the end of Christian Europe.

Orbán has forged increasingly close bonds with Poland’s ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party and Italy’s Lega, the former strongly conservative-nationalist and the latter on the far-right; both are not part of the EPP. There has been speculation for some while that he would leave the EPP to form a new far-right group with them.

Fearful of sparking a grand political realignment of Europe’s right, which has dominated European politics for over a decade, the EPP has kept relatively quiet. Until now.

Last month Orbán launched an ad campaign in Hungary attacking European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, who is also a member of the EPP. The posters, ahead of the campaign for the European election taking place in May, seemed to be running against the EPP rather than with it. This was the straw that broke the camel’s back.

Juncker launched a furious rebuttal to Orbán in response to the ads, and now a dozen parties within the EPP have tabled a motion to expel Orbán’s Fidesz party at their congress on March 20. The Hungarian prime minister seems to be willing to row back just enough to defeat the vote—but is it too little, too late?

Weber to the Rescue

Up till now, Manfred Weber has been trying to act as the peacemaker between the warring factions of the EPP. He has been close with Orbán in the past and some have even called him the “Orbán whisperer” for his efforts to translate the nationalistic rhetoric of the Hungarian leader into softer-sounding words for his EPP colleagues.

But the anti-Juncker campaign spurred Weber to drop his defense. He called it “unacceptable,” and said “one cannot belong to the EPP and campaign against the current EPP commission president.”

He travelled to Budapest hoping to extract concessions from Orbán that will avoid a vote to expel him next week. But the result was unconvincing.

“Today in my talks with Prime Minister Viktor Orbán we had a constructive atmosphere, but problems are not yet solved,” Weber told reporters at a press conference following the meeting. “We have to still assess and discuss among the EPP party members, about the upcoming decisions.”

Weber said that Orbán had promised him his anti-Juncker poster campaign would end. Indeed, the billboards between the airport and the parliament—the route Weber took to get to the meeting—had already been covered up. But posters elsewhere in the city are still up, as are the online ads on Hungarian websites.

Weber said this isn’t just about the posters, it is about broader issues. “What we want to guarantee is that Fidesz is committed to the EPP values, and Hungary is a clear pro-European country which sticks to the European values,” he said.

To underline just how much Orbán seems to be threatening those values, Weber held his press conference in a historic synagogue in Budapest. The Hungarian prime minister and his Fidesz party have been accused of demonizing Hungary’s Jewish community, most notably the Hungarian-born US financier George Soros who has been depicted alongside Juncker in the ads.

Splintering the EP’s Juggernaut

The EPP holds the most seats in the European Council and European Parliament, making it the most powerful political family in the EU by far. The long decline of the center-left Socialists and Democrats group has left the EPP as the undisputed leader in the era of Angela Merkel.

Given that it’s so large, one might ask what would be the big deal in losing Fidesz’s 12 MEPs? The fear is that more EPP parties would follow Orbán out the door into his new group, which could then pose a real threat. In other words, better to have Orbán in the tent pissing out, than outside pissing in.

Orbán has well understood the EPP’s fears, and it has given him a feeling of invincibility. But this week, the resolution to expel Fidesz seems to have spooked him. Orbán’s chief of staff told Reuters last week that the party would ditch the billboards and is ready to apologize if any offence was caused. And though members of his party have been calling for Fidesz to leave the EPP and unite with the Poles and Italians, Orbán has been publicly urging restraint.

However these minor peace offerings might not be enough to save him. The math for next week’s EPP vote is not looking good. At least twelve of the EPP’s 56 parties plan to vote to expel, a list that reportedly includes Greece’s New Democracy, Finland’s Kokoomus, Belgium’s CdH and CD&V, and Sweden’s Christian Democrats.

Whether or not Orbán’s party is expelled will depend on what the big center-right parties decide to do, namely Germany’s CDU/CSU, France’s Les Républicains, Spain’s People’s Party, and Italy’s Forza Italia.

It may be that Orbán’s fate lies in the hands of his long-time enemy Angela Merkel. But the German Chancellor is known as being a cautious and shrewd politician, and she will not tell her delegates to vote to expel Orbán simply because of her personal dislike for him. With the rise of the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) putting pressure on her own party, she will be wary of doing anything that will bolster the far-right ahead of the European Parliament election, or during the crucial group formation period between May and July.

Out by the End of the Year?

For this reason, the most likely outcome of next week’s vote will be to allow Fidesz to remain in the EPP. There is a widespread belief that Orbán is actually trying to get the EPP to expel him, to feed a persecution narrative common among Europe’s far-right. If he can claim that Europe’s elites are trying to silence him, it could only make him grow stronger.

And so for the moment, the EPP is likely to prefer to have Orbán inside the tent rather than outside it. But given recent events, it seems unlikely his party will remain in the group by the end of the year. The EPP may just wait until after the new European Parliament has been formed and the political groupings within it have been decided.

In the meantime, however, this procrastination will benefit Europe’s center-left, Liberals, and Greens during the European election campaign. All three—especially the liberals—will point to Orbán’s continued presence in the EPP as evidence of their lack of courage, conviction, and values. We’ll find out at the end of May whether European voters took notice.

The post The Orbán Showdown appeared first on Berlin Policy Journal - Blog.

© REUTERS/Vincent Kessler

Opponents of Viktor Orbán’s brand of self-described “illiberal democracy” were cheering yesterday when the European Parliament voted to start a process stripping the Hungarian government of EU rights unless it stops its rule of law violations.

But behind the scenes, many within Europe’s mainstream conservative parties are worried that the vote may have just unleashed a monster. Depending on what happens next, yesterday’s vote could kick off a chain reaction that neuters Angela Merkel on the European stage and creates the most powerful far-right movement in Europe since the end of the World War II.

In other words, a development which is the exact opposite of what those cheering yesterday’s vote want to see. All eyes are now on Orbán to see how he will react.

Losing His Shield

To understand what’s coming next, we need to understand how we got here. This week’s invocation of Article 7—an emergency procedure designed to safeguard basic protections for democracy and civil liberties—is not a response to recent developments. Orbán has been dismantling democratic institutions in Hungary since his Fidesz party won a supermajority in the Hungarian parliament in 2010. What has changed is Orbán’s ambitions.

Until now, Orbán has been protected from EU criticism by the European Peoples Party (EPP), the pan-European group of center-right parties of which Fidesz is a part. It is the most powerful political group in Europe. Not only is it the majority party in the European Parliament, it also counts the President of the European Commission, the President of the European Council and the German chancellor as members. When Orbán took office, 15 of the EU’s 27 governments were under EPP control (that number is now eight).

Last year the Article 7 process was set in motion for the first time in EU history against Poland’s Law and Justice (PiS) government, a close ally of Fidesz that is also dismantling democratic, judicial and media institutions. Law & Justice is not part of the EPP, it is instead part of the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), a euroskeptic group founded by David Cameron and the British Conservatives in 2009 as a break-away from the EPP.

But all attempts to censure Hungary for similar behavior were blocked by the EPP and its leader, Manfred Weber, who has tried to serve as a bridge-builder and keep the group together.

So what changed? It was Orbán’s behaviour. Now that he has consolidated his untouchable power in Hungary—solidified in April in an election OSCE observers said was based on “intimidating and xenophobic rhetoric, media bias, and opaque campaign financing”—he has set his sights on Europe.

Orbán has given speeches in recent months calling on the EPP to move further to the right and embrace his fight against liberal democracy and multiculturalism. He has not-so-subtly suggested that if it doesn’t, he will look for political allies elsewhere. He has publicly disparaged CDU leader Angela Merkel and developed close ties with her critics, particularly Horst Seehofer, the head of her Bavarian sister party the CSU. He has also been courting Austria’s chancellor Sebastian Kurz.

Meanwhile, he is developing a clear alliance with Poland’s PiS and Italy’s Lega, both of whom are not in the EPP.

The fear until now has been that that if the EPP angered Orbán by voting for Article 7, he would leave the group and take his 12 MEPs with him. He might also take other countries’ MEPs. There has been speculation that Kurz’s Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) might leave with him. There have even been whispers that the CSU might leave with Orbán to join a new party—something that would most likely cause the German government to collapse.

With such dangerous possibilities, the EPP had calculated that the risk of invoking Article 7 was too great. “He may be a bastard, but for the moment he’s our bastard,” an EPP staffer once said to me, quoting Nixon.

That calculation changed when Orbán seemed to be suggesting that he will leave the group anyway before next May’s European Parliament election. His demands for the EPP to lurch right were unacceptable to the group’s leadership.

And so, the EPP decided to call Orban’s bluff—betting that despite the prime minister’s bluster, Fidesz does not want to leave the largest political group in Europe.

Orban’s Next Move

But it is a bet few in the EPP feel confident about. In the parliamentary halls in Strasbourg this week, there are whispers that Orbán may be about to leave, possibly within days.

What seems more likely is that he will bide his time for now and start courting various forces on the European right about the possibility of forming a new political group to the right of the EPP. Such a group could be formed in the next seven months to be ready for the European election, or he could wait until after the election to see the relative strength of each party in terms of number of seats.

Given his stated eagerness that this election be fought on ideological federalist vs nationalist grounds, it seems likely he would want his new alliance in place before the election – to give voters a clear choice.

Orbán has two options. He can start a brand new group, or join the existing ECR. Both are fraught with complications.

There are currently 12 recognized “europarties.” In order to be official, a party must have received at least 3 percent of the votes cast in at least seven member states in the last European Parliament elections. Attracting the requisite number of parties from the requisite number of countries might be difficult for Orbán if he wants to start a brand-new europarty—and would probably require the ECR to disband. The requirements for forming a corresponding group in the parliament are even more stringent.

Given that the ECR was founded by the Tories, and the United Kingdom, post-Brexit, won’t be in the next European Parliament, the ECR’s continued existence has been called into question. But PiS, the only party in the group other than the Tories of any significant size, insist they want to keep the ECR alive.

For this reason, it might be easier for Orbán to join the ECR, with the tacit understanding that he would remake the group in his own image as its ideological leader. Without the Tories the ECR will be completely dominated by his Polish allies, so this would be a logical step.

A Far-Right Juggernaut?

It’s fair to assume that Orbán’s new partner Matteo Salvini would bring his populist Lega party into the fold, and Five Star might also be convinced to join (they were previously in Nigel Farage’s EFDD group, expected to be retired after this term). The ECR already counts the Sweden Democrats, the Danish People’s Party, the True Finns, and N-VA as members, and until recently Alternative for Germany (AfD) was also in the group.

It’s also conceivable that France’s Front National and the Netherlands’ PVV may want to join the new group. Finally there is the big question—would Austria’s ÖVP and Germany’s CSU leave the EPP to join? And would other EPP members follow?

Were such a group to be formed, it would include governing parties of Italy, Poland, Belgium, Austria, and Hungary, and the important opposition parties of France, Sweden, Germany, and the Netherlands. In other words, the political group founded by the British Conservatives in 2009 would become the most powerful far-right political movement in Europe since 1945.

This is the doomsday scenario the EPP has been terrified of these past years. It is the reason they turned a blind eye to Orbán’s transgressions for so long. But in the meantime, his reputation on the European stage has only grown.

During the parliament’s debate on the Article 7 resolution on Tuesday, the chamber was overwhelmed by far right and euroskeptic MEPs, many of whom normally don’t show up to the plenary, heaping praise on the Hungarian leader. Several called him a “leader.”

It was clear that the debate was not about Hungary at all. At this point, it is about the future of Europe. And about one-third of the current European Parliament views Orbán as their ideological hero.

The future of Europe depends on what Orbán decides to do with this adoration.

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© REUTERS/Darrin Zammit Lupi

During his time in the European Parliament, Manfred Weber hasn’t struck many as being presidential material. The mild-mannered leader of the European Peoples Party (EPP), the parliament’s grouping of center-right parties from across the European Union, isn’t known for taking bold stances, or for delivering fiery speeches.

Instead he is known as a bridge builder, and this was the characteristic he chose to highlight on Wednesday when announcing his candidacy to become the EPP’s nominee for the next President of the European Commission, the EU’s top job.

“I will listen, I will try to manage a compromise and then I will lead, this is what I did as a group leader,” he told journalists at a press conference in Brussels. “I want to build up bridges, because I deeply believe that only together we can be strong, otherwise Europe has no chance in today’s world.”

The battle will be waged in just nine months at the next European Parliament election when, under the “spitzenkandidat” process, the nominee of the European political group who wins the most seats will (in theory) become the next Commission president, a position currently occupied by Jean-Claude Juncker. The EPP, the largest group in the parliament, will select its nominee at a convention in November.

Straddling the Middle Ground

Weber’s skill in straddling a middle ground is reflected in his motley crew of allies. A confidant of Angela Merkel, he received the German Chancellor’s endorsement to be EPP nominee right away. But another, more surprising endorsement may be coming soon—that of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.

Orbán has been a vocal critic of Merkel during the refugee crisis. In recent months he has delivered speeches suggesting he may lead a revolt within the EPP and take his and other hard-right parties out, linking up with parties such as Poland’s Law and Justice (PiS) and Italy’s Lega, which have been considered too far-right for the EPP.

There has even been suggestion that the CSU, the Bavarian sister party to Merkel’s CDU, could leave the EPP and join Orban’s new hard-right European alliance—while staying allied with the CDU domestically.

It is perhaps no accident then that Merkel has chosen to throw her weight behind Weber, a deputy chairman of the CSU. He is a politician representing a Central European brand of conservatism who, like Chancellor Sebastian Kurz in neighboring Austria, is trying to find a middle ground between the nationalist and anti-liberal rhetoric of Orban and the pragmatic pluralism of Merkel.

This has often involved cozying up to the Hungarian prime minister. In July 2013, when the European Parliament’s civil liberties committee issued a report criticizing the erosion of fundamental rights in Hungary, Weber dismissed it as a politically motivated attack against Orbán by leftist parties. He also defended Orbán earlier this year after the prime minister said he had replaced liberal democracy in Hungary with “21^st-century Christian democracy,” saying Orbán is “not a bad European.”

Anti-Migrant Rhetoric

Weber has often parroted the anti-migrant language of Orbán as well, calling on Europe to maintain its fundamental Christian values. In April, Weber tweeted a photo of a Catholic church with a quote from himself saying, “If we want to defend our way of life we must know what determines us. Europe needs a debate on identity and dominant culture.” He has said the EU should enact a total ban on face coverings in the bloc.

Weber was the lead MEP on the EU’s 2008 migrant return directive, and fought hard for interior countries like Germany to have the ability to send migrants back to their country of origin, something that won him favor within the CSU and particularly with its current leader Horst Seehofer, another Orbán ally and a critic of Merkel.

But for those made uncomfortable by Weber’s ethno-nationalist flirtations, he has veered from Orbán’s politics in his steadfast defense of European integration. In June 2014, as Britain’s then-Prime Minister David Cameron came to the EU demanding an end to integration, Weber responded emphatically. “The EU is based on an ever-closer union of European peoples,” he said. “That is set out in the treaties. It is not negotiable for us. We cannot sell the soul of Europe.”

Such strong defense of the European project have won him fans in the more moderate wing of the EPP. It is this balancing act that Weber hopes will make him the nominee the EPP needs at a time when political tensions are threatening to break it apart.

Pleasing Both Sides

He was at pains to please both sides of the EPP divide in his tweets announcing his candidacy on Wednesday. “Europe is at a turning point,” he said. “Today, it’s about standing up for Europe …, because we are being attacked from outside and from within. It’s about the survival of our European way of life.”

However, there are many forces that will work against Weber. Rather than endearing him to both sides, Weber’s fence-sitting could serve to alienate both sides of the party—turned off by either his anti-migration rhetoric or his warm words for further European integration.

He will likely face at least two tough challengers for the EPP nomination—Michel Barnier, the EU’s Brexit negotiator who lost the EPP nomination to Jean-Claude Juncker in 2014, and Alex Stubb, the former Finnish prime minister. Both are expected to also throw their hat in the ring.

Even if he does get the nomination, the biggest battle may be after the election. The national EU leaders in the European Council, which under the treaties have the real right to appoint the president, have said that the Council will not be bound by the spitzenkandidat system. French President Emmanuel Macron has been particularly opposed to the idea, saying the EU erred in 2014 by going along with the new system being pushed by the parliament.

So if he gets the nomination, Weber may find himself having to bridge the greatest gap yet—that between the European Parliament and the European Council.

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