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Who is writing the script for Brexit? Because this drama seems to have no end in sight. No sooner had we journalists written our pieces about what to expect this week than we had to consign them to the bin. The story moved from when would British Prime Minister Theresa May bring her twice rejected Brexit deal back to Parliament to wondering whether she could legally bring it back at all.

The latest twist in this never-ending saga centers around the Speaker of the House of Commons, John Bercow. He is in effect the chief official in Parliament and therefore oversees procedure. He also has a habit of causing political upset to one side of the House or the other. His latest ruling can only be described as a bombshell and draws on parliamentary convention dating back to 1604.

Unless the proposition for passing May’s twice-defeated Withdrawal Agreement is “substantially” changed, Bercow has said she cannot present it again to Parliament. So, all the talk about whether she may finally have won over the hardcore Brexiteers in her own party or even those awkward 10 Northern Irish DUP MPs who prop up her government in Westminster, appears to be irrelevant. No-one really knows what happens next. The United Kingdom may not have a written constitution, but there’s talk that it’s now in constitutional crisis.

On Thursday and Friday there’s another EU Summit of the leaders of the member states. Originally it was supposed to be a rubber-stamping exercise, a few days before the UK officially leaves the EU. Since last week we’ve known that Theresa May would be forced to ask for a delay to Brexit. That delay now looks endless as she and her team try to work out what on earth they do next.

Major Headache for Brussels

In Parliament, John Bercow suggested a complete renegotiation at EU level would be needed in order to justify the government’s Brexit deal again being presented to Parliament. It had been assumed that clarifying the legal advice on the so-called Irish backstop would be enough to warrant another vote on May’s Withdrawal Agreement. Many Brexiteers are delighted with the Speaker’s latest ruling, believing that yet again a no-deal Brexit must be back on the table—even if Parliament ruled it out last week. Remember, until there’s a change in British law, the UK is still due to leave the EU next Friday.

All of this creates a major headache for Brussels. EU chiefs don’t want to see a chaotic, no-deal Brexit. But neither do they want to consider a complete renegotiation with London. They’ve always maintained that the Withdrawal Agreement cannot be reopened. They’ve also made it very clear that extending Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty for no clear purpose is not something they can support. So, what will they do now? How can they maintain a united front for all 27 EU members when no one is quite sure what it is they are actually uniting around?

An Opening for a Softer Brexit?

Another significant problem is that a delay to Brexit of anything more than a couple of months will mean the UK is forced to take part in the European Elections which will be held in May. Those who see themselves as defending the EU project will not want a pro-Brexit populist party, probably fronted by Euroskeptic MEP, Nigel Farage, trying to hijack an election that’s already looking difficult to stage manage. None of this was part of the script.

There have been suggestions that the current Parliamentary session in Westminster could be cut short. But that would surely lead to another British general election. Perhaps instead, focus will now turn to the short document that accompanies the Withdrawal Agreement—namely the Political Declaration. This focuses on what type of future relationship the UK and EU will have post Brexit. Could a majority in Parliament agree to a softer Brexit—one that, say, keeps the UK in a Customs Union and perhaps even the Single Market. The very idea will be hated by Euroskeptics, but there are many MPs across the House of Commons who would prefer this to a hard Brexit.

Waiting for the Brexit Finale

No-one can really predict what happens next. Which reminds me of something that happened last Thursday night. Just after a majority of British lawmakers had voted to delay Brexit, I was at Berlin’s Mercedez Benz Arena watching one of my favorite bands play. The members of Florence and the Machine are proud South Londoners. But it quickly became apparent that they, like other British artists who find themselves touring Europe, are acutely embarrassed about what’s going on back home.

In front of more than 17,000 people, singer-song writer, Florence Welch, summed up the state of Brexit in three words. “It’s a mess!” she declared, before asking us all to hold hands to show that we were all united. As a Brit it was rather touching—if a little uncomfortable. But it just goes to show how much Brexit is dominating not just British life, but European life too.

At some point, this excruciating British drama will have to reach its climax. Despite all the extraordinary twists and turns, there’s still some way to go before we reach the finale.

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If you were to describe Brexit as a farce, you wouldn’t have to look much further than the latest debacle to hit the British government. £33 million is the sum the Department for Transport has been forced to pay Eurotunnel to settle a legal case over “secretive” ferry contracts. The scramble to secure extra ferry capacity came about because of fears that a no-deal Brexit could affect the supply of medicines. One of those multi-million pound contracts was awarded to a company that had—wait for it—no ships at all. That contract with Seaborne Freight was eventually withdrawn.

These stories, along with the political crisis engulfing Westminster, sum up the state of play in Brexit Britain. Yet the country has somehow to get its act together if it really is to leave the European Union on Friday, March 29 with some kind of agreement.

For this to be even remotely possible, Prime Minister Theresa May still has to get her deal through Parliament. Having lost a vote on her Brexit deal back in January by an historic margin (she was beaten by a majority of 230 votes), May has been doing all she can to run down the clock. This is to force British MPs to accept her deal or face a chaotic Brexit.

Brexit Delayed?

But thanks to resignation threats from several government ministers who oppose a no-deal Brexit, Theresa May has had to offer something she really didn’t want to—a possible delay to Brexit. It looks as though she will present her latest deal to Parliament next Tuesday, March 12. If it’s again defeated, MPs will vote the following day on whether they would accept a no-deal Brexit. When that’s defeated (which it surely will be because a majority of MPs do not support leaving the EU without an agreement), they will be asked on the Thursday whether the government should seek an extension to Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. If that result is yes and if the EU agrees, Brexit will be delayed. For how long will become the next battle.

The Labour Party, the main opposition, has also been forced to change its position. After months of procrastination its euroskeptic leader, Jeremy Corbyn, is grudgingly backing a second referendum, though it’s not clear exactly what would be on the ballot. This turnaround is in part down to the decision by eight of his own MPs, all of whom support a “People’s Vote,” to jump ship and form a breakaway formation, The Independent Group. As soon as the referendum pledge was confirmed, one of those MPs told me, “With Corbyn, always read the small print: terms and conditions most probably apply.”

Those eight Labour MPs have since been joined by three Conservatives, making Theresa May’s minority government a little smaller. In fact, even though The Independent Group isn’t yet a political party, one recent poll had it on 18 percent. Over these hectic past few weeks, Brexit has been changing the political dynamic in Westminster even more dramatically than usual.

May’s Chances Rising

But before you start to think a delay to Brexit and a second referendum are all but inevitable, think again. While nobody can predict with any certainty what the final outcome will be, there is an increasing chance that Theresa May could yet get her revised Withdrawal Agreement through Parliament. Why? Because the threat of a delay to Brexit, coupled with Labour’s move toward backing some kind of referendum, may well focus minds.

Some of the hard Brexiteer Tories in the European Research Group, including its leader Jacob Rees-Mogg, seem to be softening their resistance to May’s deal. Their main source of contention is over the so-called Irish backstop—an insurance policy included in the agreement to avoid a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. Pro-Brexit MPs hate it because it could place the whole of the UK in a Customs Union with the EU, while also forcing Northern Ireland to abide by stricter rules.

They want legally binding changes to the text that would either remove the backstop or at least give it a time limit. So far, Brussels has refused to reopen the agreement. But there is talk among Brexiteers—including those 10 Northern Irish DUP MPs who prop up May’s government—that they would consider accepting another form of mechanism to ensure the backstop is temporary.

But even if the government’s chief legal adviser, Geoffrey Cox, can persuade Brussels to add a codicil or appendix to the agreement, what could it possibly say that would keep all sides happy? Nobody there wants to threaten the Good Friday Agreement that brought peace to Northern Ireland more than 20 years ago. And Brussels’ allegiance must lie with Dublin, not London.

Despite the Brexiteers’ warmer words, the British prime minister must surely know by now that she can’t rely on them. Some would be quite happy to leave the EU with no deal in place. So in the time that’s left, May will continue to reach out to the more moderate members of her party, as well as those Labour MPs who support Brexit or at least feel they must honor the 2016 referendum result.

Corbyn’s Calculations

Jeremy Corbyn could probably live with some of his Labour MPs backing the deal. For him, that would at least reduce the likelihood of a second referendum, which he has been forced to back reluctantly. There is still a possibility that the party could support May’s deal, or at least abstain, allowing it to pass in exchange for a new referendum that would include the option to remain. But helping May get her deal through would not be the euroskeptic leader’s preferred option: if Labour’s top command can ensure the Brexit mess is laid at the door of a right-wing Tory government, so much the better.

There’s also talk of the PM offering Parliament two “meaningful” votes this month on her agreement with Brussels, in order to get her deal over the line by March 29. But time is running out, and even if May does get it through, the British Parliament will still need to put the necessary legislation in place before B-Day.

Each day lost to indecision and political paralysis makes a delay to Brexit ever more likely. Former British Ambassador to the EU Sir Ivan Rogers recently told Der Spiegel that he has been surprised at “the extent of the mess.” Few can disagree with that.

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© REUTERS/Piroschka Van De Wouw

Last Friday, another government minister resigned—the seventh since the Brexit deal agreed with Brussels was published last month. More than 100 MPs from British Prime Minister Theresa May’s own party have already said they will vote against the EU Withdrawal Agreement when it’s put to Parliament next Tuesday. Labour, the official opposition, has said it will also vote against the deal, as will the Scottish Nationalists (SNP) and other smaller parties. Even those 10 MPs from Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) who prop up May’s minority government have also vowed not to support her.

In fact, there are some who believe that Downing Street will decide that success for May in next Tuesday’s vote is so implausible that they will scrap it altogether. As one leading Brexiteer told me, somewhat cynically: “That’s what they do in the EU Council of Ministers, so why not in Westminster?”

Yet against all odds, it looks like Theresa May and her loyal team of MPs and advisers are pressing on with the vote. They apparently believe that they can turn it around. There is the usual arm-twisting going on by government “whips,” whose role it is to ensure party discipline. The prime minister herself is holding one-to-one talks with MPs who might be persuaded to support her.

It’s not an easy job, but it must have helped that lead Brexiteer, Michael Gove, who has stayed in May’s cabinet as environment secretary, has publicly warned that voting down her deal could lead to a second referendum and possibly no Brexit at all. He believes that it’s more important to get the United Kingdom out of the EU as soon as possible than to worry too much about details now. Many call this a “Blind Brexit,” but for the likes of Gove it’s simple politics. All May needs is a one vote majority on December 11 in Parliament and she’s pretty much sealed her deal.

But let’s assume that next Tuesday evening  May fails. What then? There are various scenarios that could play out and much would depend on how heavy the defeat is:

Second Parliamentary Vote

The smaller the rebellion, the more likely May is to ask that Parliament be given a chance to vote again. Some believe that this has always been Downing Street’s plan—let MPs experience the chaos their “no” vote unleashes, particularly in financial markets, and then be given the opportunity to try again.

Ask for More EU Concessions

The prime minister may decide to head straight back to Brussels to try to eke out more concessions from the EU, particularly over the deeply unpopular Northern Ireland “backstop.” It’s unclear, though, what more the EU would be prepared to give. Spain’s concerns over the future of Gibraltar post-Brexit have proven that it’s not all about what the UK wants.

Calls for a Softer Brexit: “Norway Plus”

A “no” vote could also see May come under more pressure from a cross-party coalition of MPs who are demanding a softer Brexit—the so-called Norway Plus. Essentially this would keep the UK in both the customs union and the single market, for a limited amount of time at least. But with the single market comes freedom of movement. Given that it was the issue of immigration that prompted many in the UK to vote to leave the EU in the first place, this could be deeply unpopular. As the name suggests, those in favor of “Norway Plus” want extra concessions from the EU, and there will be member states who will feel the UK has already been offered enough.

May Resigns

May could of course quit—either by choice or due to pressure from senior ministers. The hard-right Brexiteers within her party, who are led by the rather eccentric Jacob Rees-Mogg, could finally secure those 48 letters needed to push for a leadership contest. The question would then be: who would replace her? There would likely be outright civil war within the Tory party. And as I wrote before, the big risk is that neither side gets the leader they want.

Labour’s Motion of No Confidence

If May loses the Parliamentary vote next week, the Labour Party looks certain to force a no-confidence vote in the government. Of course, what the party really wants is a general election. But Labour would need a majority in Parliament, and there’s no guarantee that it would get one. Those Tory MPs who are either vehemently pro- or anti-Brexit are unlikely to risk a hard-left government led by Jeremy Corbyn.

May Calls a General Election

May herself could call a general election. She’s spent the last few weeks trying to win over the public, as seen during her tour of the country. But the 2017 general election didn’t go too well for her and this would be an even greater risk.

A Second Referendum

So could this be the moment when the so-called People’s Vote becomes a real possibility? One of those behind the campaign has admitted that to make this happen, the Labour Party would need to be on board. So far, however, the Labour front bench has given mixed messages. Party leader Jeremy Corbyn, himself a euroskeptic, has been unwilling so far to lend his support or even say which way he would vote if there were to be another referendum. Still, Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell said recently that a “People’s Vote” might become inevitable. The problem with a second referendum is that the UK is still divided over Brexit and there’s no guarantee that the result would be different to that of 2016.

***

Things are moving extremely fast over Brexit. On Tuesday night, the government lost three successive votes, including being found in contempt of Parliament–the first time in British history. This was over the government’s decision not to  publish its Brexit legal advice in full. It has now done so, opening up another can of worms over the so-called Irish backstop.

But it was the third vote that could be the most interesting. MPs backed a proposal that Parliament could help determine what happens if they reject May’s Brexit deal next week. Many see this as a way of ensuring a no-deal Brexit will be avoided. It’s being hailed as a victory for those politicians who either want a softer Brexit or none at all.

The only silver lining to all this for Theresa May is that it may convince rebellious Brexiteers that if they don’t back her deal next Tuesday, Brexit could be derailed all together. That, of course, is what many pro-Europeans are hoping for.

This article was updated on December 5 to reflect the British government losing three votes in parliament at the start of the debate.

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© REUTERS / Peter Nicholis

In her own statement to the British Parliament on Thursday, Prime Minister Theresa May admitted that Brexit is a “frustrating process.”  That’s some understatement. After more than two years of trying to thrash out a deal with Brussels, many now believe the draft proposal she’s secured is already dead in the water. Whether Leaver or Remainer, this plan has pleased neither side.

The decision by Dominic Raab, the minister who was supposedly in charge of the Brexit process, to quit government set the scene for a chaotic Thursday in Westminster. More resignations, including that of fellow Cabinet minister Esther McVey, followed.

But whatever you think of Theresa May, her resilience in the face of such intense opposition from left, right, and center, is remarkable. She faced down her critics in Parliament, stressing time and again that this was the best Brexit deal the United Kingdom could hope to get. Then she held a press conference in Downing Street insisting she would carry on as prime minister.

On Friday morning she took to the airwaves for a radio phone-in, taking calls from members of the public. With so little support in Parliament, is it any wonder that she is appealing directly to British citizens to get behind her and her Brexit deal? As one person who played a key role in the winning Leave campaign confided to me, May’s office in Number 10 Downing Street has been running “an excellent PR operation. This is Theresa May—strong and stable,” they said.

Ever-Present Danger

But the danger for May and her government is ever-present. A no-confidence vote in her premiership from the Tory right looks like it could be triggered at any moment. Lead Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg, who heads the euroskeptic European Research Group (ERG) has submitted his letter calling for her to go. Other Tory backbenchers are now following suit.

If 48 Tory MPs write to Graham Brady, the chairman of the 1922 Committee, expressing their no-confidence in the prime minister, a vote must be called. Rumors are rife in Westminster that this magic number has almost been reached and that a coup is imminent.

However, because the Conservative party appears to be at war with itself, there is a strong possibility that May could win a vote. Just look at what Nicholas Soames, a veteran Tory MP who happens to be the grandson of Sir Winston Churchill, has said in a series of tweets:

“I am truly dismayed at the dismal behavior of some of my colleagues parading their letters to Graham Brady on TV in a vulgar display of inferior virtue signaling… It should be a point of Honor to see off the ERG and its hard right members who have been ruining the fortunes of our Party for years…”

Is There an Alternative?

Many Tory MPs may not be happy with May, but the alternative for some could be much worse. Arch Brexiteer and former Foreign Secretary, Boris Johnson, may still be popular in the country. But he has always struggled to get support from within Parliament. And what if someone who backed staying in the EU, such as new Work and Pensions Secretary, Amber Rudd, were to stand and win? That would infuriate the Tory right—not to mention those ten pro-Brexit MPs from Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) who currently prop up the government. Neither side can guarantee that one of their own would win. Important to remember too that if May were to win a no-confidence vote, she couldn’t be challenged again for a year.

But if May were to lose, there would be political chaos. She would have to resign and would be barred from standing in the leadership election that followed. Parliament would be dissolved for two weeks although May would stay in Downing Street during that period.

If the Tories were unable to choose a new leader and form a government within 14 days, a general election would be called. And that is exactly what the leadership of the main opposition Labour Party is praying to see happen. But make no mistake, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is inherently euroskeptic. Only last week he told Germany’s DER SPIEGEL magazine that there should be no second referendum on Brexit.

Divided Labour

Labour itself, though, is also divided. There are those MPs who want out of the European Union as soon as possible; others who support Brexit only because their constituents voted out; those who could back May because of fears of a no-deal; and a number who deeply oppose Brexit and want a second referendum. The problem for this fourth group of Labour MPs is that recent polls suggest there’s no guarantee a majority in the country would vote to stay in the EU.

So where does this leave Brexit? Of course, no-one can really say for sure—not Brussels, not London. But don’t write off this week’s draft agreement and don’t write off Theresa May. On Friday two key Brexiteers within her Cabinet—Environment Secretary Michael Gove and International Trade Secretary Liam Fox—said they were staying put. As the person who played a key role in the Leave campaign admitted to me, “Theresa May could still pull this off.”

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