© REUTERS/Tobias Schwarz

The Petersberg Climate Dialogue is one of those annual climate conferences one doesn’t expect much from. Thirty-five countries get together and dive into the technical nitty-gritty of international climate policy. Most journalists don’t have the patience or interest to follow the minutiae.

This year, however, Angela Merkel said something interesting at the conference. For the first time she brought up the idea of achieving “net zero” greenhouse emissions by 2050: “The discussion shouldn’t be whether we can reach it, but how we can achieve it.”

The term “net zero” doesn’t mean we would have to completely give up burning fossil fuels by then—but we would have to offset the remaining emissions via reforestation or carbon sequestration projects by which CO2 is captured from the air and stored underground. This was the first time that Merkel had clearly expressed that she was in tune with French President Emmanuel Macron’s plan for the European Union to achieve “net zero” by 2050. Until recently, she had been dithering with the vague target of “80-95 percent net reduction” in emissions by mid-century. For those frustrated with Germany’s sluggish progress on climate policy, this sounds like progress.

Reacting to Climate Protests

The latest outburst of climate ambition also tells us that the Fridays for Future demonstrations are having an impact. Merkel openly said she felt the pressure of thousands of children skipping school to protest climate change once a week.

Cynics would say that Merkel is just surfing the Zeitgeist as she always has. Who can forget her sudden U-turn on nuclear power following the Fukushima accident in 2011 when she impulsively decided to shut down all reactors in Germany by 2022, even faster than the preceding SPD-Green government had planned to do? That very decision made recent negotiations to phase out climate-ravaging brown coal plants even tougher: shutting down both nuclear and coal at more or less the same time is a huge challenge.

The imperfect plan requires increased imports of Russian natural gas and even faster expansion of wind farms, which come with their own host of problems, including protests from local residents. The painful truth is that Germany’s per head carbon emissions would be lower if the country had waited longer to phase out nuclear. Despite all of these missteps, Merkel does seem determined to leave behind a legacy of climate action when she finally leaves office.

Ruffling Feathers in the CDU

However, this latest expression of green verve is going to ruffle feathers in Merkel’s own party, the Christian Democrats (CDU). While most Germans might welcome Merkel’s attempt to tackle what is probably the single greatest problem facing humanity, the CDU under the new leadership of Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer appears to be more concerned by the bleeding of votes to the populist AfD to the right.

In the run-up to next week’s European elections, Kramp-Karrenbauer rejected calls for a CO2 tax—echoed by Manfred Weber, the conservatives’ Spitzenkandidat who is in the running to succeed Jean-Claude Juncker as president of the European Commission. Environment Minister Svenja Schulze, a member of the CDU’s coalition partners, the Social Democrats (SPD), had brought up the specter of a new tax as a way of encouraging people to reduce their CO2 emissions.

Kramp-Karrenbauer warned against Germany “going it alone” and stressed that a European solution was needed. Any solo national solution—new taxes, regulations—could harm German industry and jobs. Fair enough. And yet, when actual European solutions are proposed, such as, for example, stricter regulations designed to reduce car emissions, Germany usually steps in and makes sure the rules get watered down at the EU level.

Sense of Common Purpose

The complex reality of international climate policy demands both national  and international solutions. Whining about how Germany is only responsible for 3 percent of global emissions, as those on the right of the spectrum routinely do, doesn’t really absolve a single country. Germany happens to be the most powerful, richest, and most populous country in the EU. Leading by example doesn’t hurt if you want Europe to achieve something as a bloc.

A united net zero policy could give the embattled EU a renewed sense of common purpose—a European version of the Green New Deal that could really contribute to creating a cleaner, safer future for humanity. The continent carries a special historical responsibility. Europe was, after all, the place where people began to burn coal on an industrial scale in the 19th century.

Interestingly, climate change has become a decisive issue for voters. According to a YouGov poll this month, the environment has overtaken migration as the biggest European policy issue for Germans. Political parties are well aware of this. The Greens, SPD, and far-left Linke are aggressively calling for more climate protection in their European election campaigns. Even the CDU/CSU pay lip service to sustainability and renewable energy in their manifesto.

Climate Rebels

Nobody wants to be on the wrong side of history. Except for the AfD, which is delighted to play the role of climate rebel, now that migration has faded as an issue that can rally voters. The populists have switched their main focus from Islamophobia to shamelessly promoting conspiracy theories about Fridays for Future founder Greta Thunberg and ranting about the “climate cult.”

Merkel is largely unperturbed by the populist noise. During her first term, in 2007, she posed in front of an iceberg to show the effects of global warming. And it was her who successfully corralled reluctant European nations, including the Russian petro-state, to sign up to the 2015 Paris Agreement, which committed its signatories to make efforts to keep the global temperature rise this century well below 2 degrees Celsius.

But recently Merkel has largely been preoccupied with the euro and then refugee crises. Then came the embarrassing “Dieselgate” scandal, which exposed the inherent corruption of automakers, not to mention German hypocrisy on the environment. Merkel and her transport minister Andreas Scheuer did all they could to protect the country’s key industry.

With her new commitment to “net zero,” an overhaul of the business model of selling large petrol-fuelled cars is unavoidable. The German brands keep cranking out CO2-belching SUVs as if there were no tomorrow. If Merkel wishes to leave behind a strong climate protection law as part of her legacy, a serious confrontation with many from her own  party and industry will have to take place.

It will be interesting to see if Merkel, by nature a non-confrontational politician, can summon the stamina to push through her upgraded climate agenda.

The post Merkel’s Climate Pivot appeared first on Berlin Policy Journal - Blog.

© REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach

She knew to keep it short. When Angela Merkel stepped up to Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, who had just been elected as Merkel’s successor at the helm of Germany’s biggest political party, she briefly grasped Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer by the shoulder and by the hands. A quick nod, an even quicker smile, and then Merkel turned away.

AKK, as she is known in Germany, was Merkel’s choice for the party and eventually the chancellery, too. She has all the experience, the values, and the commitment to democracy and Europe that Merkel could wish for in a successor. But from now on, as both know perfectly well, nothing could be more damaging for the new head of the Christian Democratic Union than to be seen as too close to the chancellor.

Over the coming months, the two women will need to perform an intricate dance of support and distance, continuity and change. If they succeed, Merkel may be able to leave the chancellery with as much applause as she just received for her last speech as head of the CDU at the Hamburg party conference.

Kramp-Karrenbauer, in turn, can take over a functioning coalition in time to bolster her public image for the next federal elections due 2021. The exact date that the hand-over would happen is anybody’s guess, but about a year before election day would be reasonable.

Political chaos, of course, is another very real possibility. Merkel and AKK could mess it up—the one by playing up her remaining power (though that would seem a bit out of character), the other by proving herself unable to rally the party. Both could be pushed out of their respective offices, resulting in early elections and possibly even a part of the CDU splitting off.

AKK, however, is a politician with enormous experience at the regional and even national level. At 56, she has spent nearly 20 years in government in her home state of Saarland, a region of just under a million inhabitants. As prime minister of this most western of German states, she was re-elected twice. Kramp-Karrenbauer is clear and outspoken. She also has a reputation for being not only more openly emotional and accessible than Merkel, but also more decisive.

“You always stand on your predecessor’s shoulders,” a very self-confident Kramp-Karrenbauer said after her election in a television interview. “What is good, we shall continue, and where something needs to be changed, we will change it.“

Not Just Mini-Merkel

At Merkel’s initiative, AKK was elected secretary-general of the CDU in February 2018, a very useful learning period for the job she holds now. Over the past several months, she has also been able to demonstrate where her beliefs differ from Merkel’s: Kramp-Karrenbauer is far more socially conservative, opposing same-sex marriage, and favoring the reintroduction of conscription or an equivalent social service.

Back in 2015, Kramp-Karrenbauer had supported Merkel’s decision to keep Germany’s borders open to refugees. She hasn’t gone back on that, but she now dwells much more on the need to re-establish law and order in Germany. This is a theme that plays well within a party that is still divided over the refugee issue and desperate to regain ground from the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD).

The refugee issue is a good example to show how ambivalent relations between Merkel and AKK are bound to become. Kramp-Karrenbauer needs to infuse the CDU with new ideas and new confidence but she cannot afford to disown Merkel or her policies in government. There, the scope for change is particularly small as the CDU is bound to a very detailed coalition agreement. Its partners in government, the volatile Bavarian CSU and the desperately weak Social Democrats, are unlikely to want to do AKK any favors.

It used to be that the CDU was quite happy supporting its chancellor in power. That was its role from the very beginning under Konrad Adenauer in 1949, and it made the CDU quite a different organization from the Greens or the Social Democrats that have a more ideological outlook.

But after 18 years of Merkel as head of the party—and with her in the chancellery for the last 13 years, which reduced the party’s role even more—Germany’s Christian Democrats are desperate for change. Over the past six weeks, with lively debates between the main contenders for the party’s leadership, the CDU has discovered a new taste for inner-party democracy.

Hurdles on the Horizon

What’s worse is the enormous time pressure that the new party leadership is facing. Next year brings a series of important elections, from the European Parliament in May to regional elections in Bremen (also in May), to regional elections in the East German states of Saxony, Thuringia, and Brandenburg in the fall. In East Germany, the CDU will struggle not to be outdone by the AfD. If it fails, Merkel—and with her Kramp-Karrenbauer—are sure to be handed part of the blame.

It doesn’t help either that Kramp-Karrenbauer only won the election to the party chairmanship so very narrowly. In the second round, 517 party delegates voted for her, while 482 supported Friedrich Merz, a former opposition leader and long-time Merkel rival who is revered by many in the party for his free market convictions and gifted rhetoric.

Merz’s supporters were bitterly disappointed by the result. Some started spreading rumors that Merz had been treated unfairly by the pro-Merkel, pro-AKK camp that had organized the party congress in Hamburg. One poisonous story said that his microphone had been toned down for his final presentation to the delegates to make him appear weak.

AKK tried to build bridges by nominating Paul Ziemiak, the conservative leader of the CDU’s youth organization and a Merz supporter, as the party’s new secretary general. Still, many delegates remain skeptical. Even though he was running as the only candidate, Ziemiak received just 63 percent of the vote.

Despite such little blemishes, and despite the dangers ahead, both AKK and Merkel won an important battle in Hamburg. The prizes for the two of them are power and a good place in history. But the picture is bigger than that. On December 7, Germany’s biggest political party reaffirmed its commitment to being open, democratic, and pro-European.

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