© REUTERS/Piroschka Van De Wouw

Last Friday, another government minister resigned—the seventh since the Brexit deal agreed with Brussels was published last month. More than 100 MPs from British Prime Minister Theresa May’s own party have already said they will vote against the EU Withdrawal Agreement when it’s put to Parliament next Tuesday. Labour, the official opposition, has said it will also vote against the deal, as will the Scottish Nationalists (SNP) and other smaller parties. Even those 10 MPs from Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) who prop up May’s minority government have also vowed not to support her.

In fact, there are some who believe that Downing Street will decide that success for May in next Tuesday’s vote is so implausible that they will scrap it altogether. As one leading Brexiteer told me, somewhat cynically: “That’s what they do in the EU Council of Ministers, so why not in Westminster?”

Yet against all odds, it looks like Theresa May and her loyal team of MPs and advisers are pressing on with the vote. They apparently believe that they can turn it around. There is the usual arm-twisting going on by government “whips,” whose role it is to ensure party discipline. The prime minister herself is holding one-to-one talks with MPs who might be persuaded to support her.

It’s not an easy job, but it must have helped that lead Brexiteer, Michael Gove, who has stayed in May’s cabinet as environment secretary, has publicly warned that voting down her deal could lead to a second referendum and possibly no Brexit at all. He believes that it’s more important to get the United Kingdom out of the EU as soon as possible than to worry too much about details now. Many call this a “Blind Brexit,” but for the likes of Gove it’s simple politics. All May needs is a one vote majority on December 11 in Parliament and she’s pretty much sealed her deal.

But let’s assume that next Tuesday evening  May fails. What then? There are various scenarios that could play out and much would depend on how heavy the defeat is:

Second Parliamentary Vote

The smaller the rebellion, the more likely May is to ask that Parliament be given a chance to vote again. Some believe that this has always been Downing Street’s plan—let MPs experience the chaos their “no” vote unleashes, particularly in financial markets, and then be given the opportunity to try again.

Ask for More EU Concessions

The prime minister may decide to head straight back to Brussels to try to eke out more concessions from the EU, particularly over the deeply unpopular Northern Ireland “backstop.” It’s unclear, though, what more the EU would be prepared to give. Spain’s concerns over the future of Gibraltar post-Brexit have proven that it’s not all about what the UK wants.

Calls for a Softer Brexit: “Norway Plus”

A “no” vote could also see May come under more pressure from a cross-party coalition of MPs who are demanding a softer Brexit—the so-called Norway Plus. Essentially this would keep the UK in both the customs union and the single market, for a limited amount of time at least. But with the single market comes freedom of movement. Given that it was the issue of immigration that prompted many in the UK to vote to leave the EU in the first place, this could be deeply unpopular. As the name suggests, those in favor of “Norway Plus” want extra concessions from the EU, and there will be member states who will feel the UK has already been offered enough.

May Resigns

May could of course quit—either by choice or due to pressure from senior ministers. The hard-right Brexiteers within her party, who are led by the rather eccentric Jacob Rees-Mogg, could finally secure those 48 letters needed to push for a leadership contest. The question would then be: who would replace her? There would likely be outright civil war within the Tory party. And as I wrote before, the big risk is that neither side gets the leader they want.

Labour’s Motion of No Confidence

If May loses the Parliamentary vote next week, the Labour Party looks certain to force a no-confidence vote in the government. Of course, what the party really wants is a general election. But Labour would need a majority in Parliament, and there’s no guarantee that it would get one. Those Tory MPs who are either vehemently pro- or anti-Brexit are unlikely to risk a hard-left government led by Jeremy Corbyn.

May Calls a General Election

May herself could call a general election. She’s spent the last few weeks trying to win over the public, as seen during her tour of the country. But the 2017 general election didn’t go too well for her and this would be an even greater risk.

A Second Referendum

So could this be the moment when the so-called People’s Vote becomes a real possibility? One of those behind the campaign has admitted that to make this happen, the Labour Party would need to be on board. So far, however, the Labour front bench has given mixed messages. Party leader Jeremy Corbyn, himself a euroskeptic, has been unwilling so far to lend his support or even say which way he would vote if there were to be another referendum. Still, Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell said recently that a “People’s Vote” might become inevitable. The problem with a second referendum is that the UK is still divided over Brexit and there’s no guarantee that the result would be different to that of 2016.

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Things are moving extremely fast over Brexit. On Tuesday night, the government lost three successive votes, including being found in contempt of Parliament–the first time in British history. This was over the government’s decision not to  publish its Brexit legal advice in full. It has now done so, opening up another can of worms over the so-called Irish backstop.

But it was the third vote that could be the most interesting. MPs backed a proposal that Parliament could help determine what happens if they reject May’s Brexit deal next week. Many see this as a way of ensuring a no-deal Brexit will be avoided. It’s being hailed as a victory for those politicians who either want a softer Brexit or none at all.

The only silver lining to all this for Theresa May is that it may convince rebellious Brexiteers that if they don’t back her deal next Tuesday, Brexit could be derailed all together. That, of course, is what many pro-Europeans are hoping for.

This article was updated on December 5 to reflect the British government losing three votes in parliament at the start of the debate.

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© REUTERS / Peter Nicholis

In her own statement to the British Parliament on Thursday, Prime Minister Theresa May admitted that Brexit is a “frustrating process.”  That’s some understatement. After more than two years of trying to thrash out a deal with Brussels, many now believe the draft proposal she’s secured is already dead in the water. Whether Leaver or Remainer, this plan has pleased neither side.

The decision by Dominic Raab, the minister who was supposedly in charge of the Brexit process, to quit government set the scene for a chaotic Thursday in Westminster. More resignations, including that of fellow Cabinet minister Esther McVey, followed.

But whatever you think of Theresa May, her resilience in the face of such intense opposition from left, right, and center, is remarkable. She faced down her critics in Parliament, stressing time and again that this was the best Brexit deal the United Kingdom could hope to get. Then she held a press conference in Downing Street insisting she would carry on as prime minister.

On Friday morning she took to the airwaves for a radio phone-in, taking calls from members of the public. With so little support in Parliament, is it any wonder that she is appealing directly to British citizens to get behind her and her Brexit deal? As one person who played a key role in the winning Leave campaign confided to me, May’s office in Number 10 Downing Street has been running “an excellent PR operation. This is Theresa May—strong and stable,” they said.

Ever-Present Danger

But the danger for May and her government is ever-present. A no-confidence vote in her premiership from the Tory right looks like it could be triggered at any moment. Lead Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg, who heads the euroskeptic European Research Group (ERG) has submitted his letter calling for her to go. Other Tory backbenchers are now following suit.

If 48 Tory MPs write to Graham Brady, the chairman of the 1922 Committee, expressing their no-confidence in the prime minister, a vote must be called. Rumors are rife in Westminster that this magic number has almost been reached and that a coup is imminent.

However, because the Conservative party appears to be at war with itself, there is a strong possibility that May could win a vote. Just look at what Nicholas Soames, a veteran Tory MP who happens to be the grandson of Sir Winston Churchill, has said in a series of tweets:

“I am truly dismayed at the dismal behavior of some of my colleagues parading their letters to Graham Brady on TV in a vulgar display of inferior virtue signaling… It should be a point of Honor to see off the ERG and its hard right members who have been ruining the fortunes of our Party for years…”

Is There an Alternative?

Many Tory MPs may not be happy with May, but the alternative for some could be much worse. Arch Brexiteer and former Foreign Secretary, Boris Johnson, may still be popular in the country. But he has always struggled to get support from within Parliament. And what if someone who backed staying in the EU, such as new Work and Pensions Secretary, Amber Rudd, were to stand and win? That would infuriate the Tory right—not to mention those ten pro-Brexit MPs from Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) who currently prop up the government. Neither side can guarantee that one of their own would win. Important to remember too that if May were to win a no-confidence vote, she couldn’t be challenged again for a year.

But if May were to lose, there would be political chaos. She would have to resign and would be barred from standing in the leadership election that followed. Parliament would be dissolved for two weeks although May would stay in Downing Street during that period.

If the Tories were unable to choose a new leader and form a government within 14 days, a general election would be called. And that is exactly what the leadership of the main opposition Labour Party is praying to see happen. But make no mistake, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is inherently euroskeptic. Only last week he told Germany’s DER SPIEGEL magazine that there should be no second referendum on Brexit.

Divided Labour

Labour itself, though, is also divided. There are those MPs who want out of the European Union as soon as possible; others who support Brexit only because their constituents voted out; those who could back May because of fears of a no-deal; and a number who deeply oppose Brexit and want a second referendum. The problem for this fourth group of Labour MPs is that recent polls suggest there’s no guarantee a majority in the country would vote to stay in the EU.

So where does this leave Brexit? Of course, no-one can really say for sure—not Brussels, not London. But don’t write off this week’s draft agreement and don’t write off Theresa May. On Friday two key Brexiteers within her Cabinet—Environment Secretary Michael Gove and International Trade Secretary Liam Fox—said they were staying put. As the person who played a key role in the Leave campaign admitted to me, “Theresa May could still pull this off.”

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