© REUTERS/John Stilwell/Pool

The Brexit deadline of March 29 has come and gone, with no end to the turmoil in sight.

The Withdrawal Agreement negotiated by the British government with its 27 EU partners in Brussels has been resoundingly rejected three times by the House of Commons at Westminster, thanks mainly to the opposition of hardline Brexit rebels on the Conservative side.  Yet no other plan for an alternative Brexit has won a majority. The government is divided, the opposition is divided, and so is the country at large.

Up to one million demonstrators marched in London calling for another referendum, six million signed a petition calling for outright revocation of the request to leave the EU, while thousands of angry pro-Brexit campaigners gathered in Parliament Square to denounce their MPs as traitors for failing to deliver Brexit on time. Passions are running dangerously high. Death threats on social media are a frequent occurrence for many outspoken MPs, and the political establishment is in virtual meltdown.

Parliament has attempted to seize control of the process, but so far with little effect. The prime minister, bitterly criticized by pro-Brexit rebels for her failure to deliver their goal, has promised to resign if they will only change their minds and vote for her deal. Most of them still refused to budge. And the 10 Democratic Unionist party MPs from Northern Ireland on whom she relies to have any majority have declared that she can bring the withdrawal agreement back to parliament 1,000 times, and they will never support it. The irony is that it is a caucus of pro-Brexit rebels, plus the DUP, that have blocked the prime minister’s deal, because they see it as locking the UK to the EU, even after it has left.

Reaching Out

Now at last Theresa May has done what she should have done when she lost her majority in 2017—if not in 2016 when the referendum split the nation by 52/48—and reached across the parliamentary divide to seek a compromise with Jeremy Corbyn, leader of the Labour party. Could it break the deadlock and produce a Brexit agreement? It seems highly unlikely.

For a start, there is very little trust between the leaders or the parties. May’s move is seen as a trap by many Labour MPs, who fear that the prime minister is simply trying to get their finger-prints on a Brexit plan that has been entirely dictated by the demands of her divided Conservative party. And it is seen by the Brexiteers on her side as another desperate attempt to win their votes for the Withdrawal Agreement, by threatening a “soft” Brexit compromise instead—or no Brexit at all.

Indeed, by the very act of reaching out to the Labour party, whether the gesture is genuine or cynical, May has further infuriated her rebels and made them more likely to reject her deal. As for winning Labour votes, by promising to resign in the near future she has alienated potential soft-Brexit sympathizers. They fear she will be replaced by a hardline pro-Brexit Conservative leader like Boris Johnson or Michael Gove.

Stubborn Leaders

May and Corbyn share one personality trait: neither is naturally pragmatic nor inclined to compromise. Both are stubborn ideological leaders who won their way to the top because of their single-mindedness—May on a platform of controlling immigration, Corbyn as a devotee to a far-left socialist agenda. The difference is that May is obsessed by the need to preserve party unity, whereas Corbyn is a serial rebel against former party leaders.

The second factor compounding the search for a compromise is that neither can be sure of delivering a united party, or enough votes in parliament, to get an overall majority afterwards. They are neither loved nor respected in their own parliamentary party ranks. They are not natural persuaders.

May’s dilemma is that almost anything she might agree with Corbyn would split her party. His top line is to add a commitment to a permanent customs union with the EU, which would do much to avoid the need for a post-Brexit hard border between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic—something everyone wants to avoid, for fear of destabilizing the peace process.

But a customs union would mean that a post-Brexit government would be unable to negotiate its own bilateral trade deals, which is an article of faith for the Brexiteers. A Norway-style deal involving membership of the EU’s internal market would require British acceptance of free movement, another “red line” for May and many Conservative backbenchers.

A “Confirmatory Vote”?

If a customs union would be worse for May than Corbyn, another referendum on any deal—now called a “confirmatory vote”—would split both parties. Labour is committed by its party conference to pressing for one, at least as a last resort to break the deadlock, but a vociferous Labour minority is adamantly opposed. Many are Corbyn’s closest allies.

Precisely because a referendum is equally objectionable to both leaders, it might be an acceptable compromise. But May will try almost any other way out before she agrees. So a request to the European Council for a long extension seems unavoidable, even though May says she wants a short one. That is because she is desperate to avoid holding the European elections in the UK at the end of May.

It is not simply a matter of principle. May argues that voters will not understand why they are still electing MEPs when Brexit is supposed to be happening. Her objection is also party political. Both the big parties would probably fare badly in the poll, because of their internal divisions over EU policy. As an election based on proportional representation, it will favor the small parties, both pro- and anti-EU. That is another reason why May will do almost anything to get her Withdrawal Agreement approved before May 22, including a pact with the devil, alias Jeremy Corbyn.

No Revocation

Another escape route from Brexit which both leaders are scared of would be outright revocation of Article 50: a unilateral withdrawal of the UK request to leave the EU. That would be clean and quick. It would simply stop the process. It would remove the uncertainty that is wreaking havoc in the economy. But both May and Corbyn are fearful of a furious backlash from Brexit voters if such a thing were done by parliament, without the cover of a second referendum. The Conservatives would certainly split. So neither is going to take the initiative.

For Corbyn, Brexit is not the most important question. He has always been a euroskeptic, even though his party is heavily in favor of remaining in the EU. In his heart, he would like Brexit to happen. But if it is going to be a mess, he wants the Conservatives to get the blame—and then fight a general election to become the first hard-left Labour leader in 10 Downing Street, implementing a genuinely socialist policy.

On the one hand, he does not disagree with much in May’s withdrawal agreement. On the other, he must keep his party united and keep clear of being blamed for the shambles. Hence his willingness to talk, in the hope of a failure which leaves May appearing more intransigent.

Radical Ideas

A long extension of the Brexit deadline, contemplated in Brussels, will solve nothing on its own. But it would allow time for a general election or for another referendum. It would also allow for other more radical ideas, such as the formation of a government of national unity, or some sort of national convention, or citizens’ assemblies, to attempt to heal the great divide in British politics.

The trouble is that none of the radical ideas appeals to either May or Corbyn. Indeed, although Corbyn pays lip service to the need for a general election, he would be unlikely to win. It would almost certainly produce a hung parliament again, with Labour’s only prospect of a majority would be in coalition with the pro-EU Scottish National Party.

A government of national unity might emerge. In which case, both May and Corbyn would be side-lined. Until they are, the prospects for progress and some sort of reconciliation in British politics look bleak.

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© REUTERS/ Toby Melville

If you were to describe Brexit as a farce, you wouldn’t have to look much further than the latest debacle to hit the British government. £33 million is the sum the Department for Transport has been forced to pay Eurotunnel to settle a legal case over “secretive” ferry contracts. The scramble to secure extra ferry capacity came about because of fears that a no-deal Brexit could affect the supply of medicines. One of those multi-million pound contracts was awarded to a company that had—wait for it—no ships at all. That contract with Seaborne Freight was eventually withdrawn.

These stories, along with the political crisis engulfing Westminster, sum up the state of play in Brexit Britain. Yet the country has somehow to get its act together if it really is to leave the European Union on Friday, March 29 with some kind of agreement.

For this to be even remotely possible, Prime Minister Theresa May still has to get her deal through Parliament. Having lost a vote on her Brexit deal back in January by an historic margin (she was beaten by a majority of 230 votes), May has been doing all she can to run down the clock. This is to force British MPs to accept her deal or face a chaotic Brexit.

Brexit Delayed?

But thanks to resignation threats from several government ministers who oppose a no-deal Brexit, Theresa May has had to offer something she really didn’t want to—a possible delay to Brexit. It looks as though she will present her latest deal to Parliament next Tuesday, March 12. If it’s again defeated, MPs will vote the following day on whether they would accept a no-deal Brexit. When that’s defeated (which it surely will be because a majority of MPs do not support leaving the EU without an agreement), they will be asked on the Thursday whether the government should seek an extension to Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. If that result is yes and if the EU agrees, Brexit will be delayed. For how long will become the next battle.

The Labour Party, the main opposition, has also been forced to change its position. After months of procrastination its euroskeptic leader, Jeremy Corbyn, is grudgingly backing a second referendum, though it’s not clear exactly what would be on the ballot. This turnaround is in part down to the decision by eight of his own MPs, all of whom support a “People’s Vote,” to jump ship and form a breakaway formation, The Independent Group. As soon as the referendum pledge was confirmed, one of those MPs told me, “With Corbyn, always read the small print: terms and conditions most probably apply.”

Those eight Labour MPs have since been joined by three Conservatives, making Theresa May’s minority government a little smaller. In fact, even though The Independent Group isn’t yet a political party, one recent poll had it on 18 percent. Over these hectic past few weeks, Brexit has been changing the political dynamic in Westminster even more dramatically than usual.

May’s Chances Rising

But before you start to think a delay to Brexit and a second referendum are all but inevitable, think again. While nobody can predict with any certainty what the final outcome will be, there is an increasing chance that Theresa May could yet get her revised Withdrawal Agreement through Parliament. Why? Because the threat of a delay to Brexit, coupled with Labour’s move toward backing some kind of referendum, may well focus minds.

Some of the hard Brexiteer Tories in the European Research Group, including its leader Jacob Rees-Mogg, seem to be softening their resistance to May’s deal. Their main source of contention is over the so-called Irish backstop—an insurance policy included in the agreement to avoid a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. Pro-Brexit MPs hate it because it could place the whole of the UK in a Customs Union with the EU, while also forcing Northern Ireland to abide by stricter rules.

They want legally binding changes to the text that would either remove the backstop or at least give it a time limit. So far, Brussels has refused to reopen the agreement. But there is talk among Brexiteers—including those 10 Northern Irish DUP MPs who prop up May’s government—that they would consider accepting another form of mechanism to ensure the backstop is temporary.

But even if the government’s chief legal adviser, Geoffrey Cox, can persuade Brussels to add a codicil or appendix to the agreement, what could it possibly say that would keep all sides happy? Nobody there wants to threaten the Good Friday Agreement that brought peace to Northern Ireland more than 20 years ago. And Brussels’ allegiance must lie with Dublin, not London.

Despite the Brexiteers’ warmer words, the British prime minister must surely know by now that she can’t rely on them. Some would be quite happy to leave the EU with no deal in place. So in the time that’s left, May will continue to reach out to the more moderate members of her party, as well as those Labour MPs who support Brexit or at least feel they must honor the 2016 referendum result.

Corbyn’s Calculations

Jeremy Corbyn could probably live with some of his Labour MPs backing the deal. For him, that would at least reduce the likelihood of a second referendum, which he has been forced to back reluctantly. There is still a possibility that the party could support May’s deal, or at least abstain, allowing it to pass in exchange for a new referendum that would include the option to remain. But helping May get her deal through would not be the euroskeptic leader’s preferred option: if Labour’s top command can ensure the Brexit mess is laid at the door of a right-wing Tory government, so much the better.

There’s also talk of the PM offering Parliament two “meaningful” votes this month on her agreement with Brussels, in order to get her deal over the line by March 29. But time is running out, and even if May does get it through, the British Parliament will still need to put the necessary legislation in place before B-Day.

Each day lost to indecision and political paralysis makes a delay to Brexit ever more likely. Former British Ambassador to the EU Sir Ivan Rogers recently told Der Spiegel that he has been surprised at “the extent of the mess.” Few can disagree with that.

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