© REUTERS/Tony Gentile

Giuseppe Conte, a 53-year-old lawyer and professor, was an unknown on Italy’s political scene—until Monday, that is. He was thrust into the spotlight when Luigi Di Maio, leader of the anti-establishment Five Star Movement (M5S), and coalition partner Matteo Salvini, who heads up the far-right Lega (“League”), nominated Conte to steer their “government of change” as prime minister.

The decision to nominate a complete political novice as premier was unprecedented, but then these are unprecedented times for complex Italy: Almost three months of political wrangling, two former rivals not only buried their significant differences but also united in their determination to break from the status quo for good.

After Conte survived scrutiny over his credentials—he was accused of embellishing his university studies on his CV—president Sergio Mattarella handed him a mandate to form a cabinet and start putting the new government’s program in place. That program includes a list of pricey fiscal pledges, with both a flat tax and an universal basic income, as well as a raft of hardline policies against illegal immigrants. The policy document, titled “Contract for the Government of Change,” also calls for sanctions against Russia to be withdrawn, EU treaties to be renegotiated, unauthorized Roma camps and mosques to be shut down, and imams to be registered.

More than 90 percent of supporters from both the M5S and Lega backed the program, leaving Mattarella little choice but to ratify a government that many analysts believe will leave the eurozone’s third-biggest economy in peril and immigrants more vulnerable.

“The voters of these two parties are very happy because they are in power, so there won’t be any rebellion from them. The parties were out to grab power and they grabbed it,” said Mauro Calise, a politics professor at the University of Naples Federico II.

Conte’s path to the premier’s office could still be derailed, however, by President Mattarella’s strong reservations over the coalition’s pick for finance minister: Paolo Savona, an 81-year-old economist who wants to pull Italy out of the euro. 

Turbulence Ahead

Salvini and Di Maio both campaigned on a highly euroskeptic platform, and they have continued to challenge the EU since Italy’s March election. Yet in his first public address on Wednesday, Conte moved to allay fears in Brussels by saying that Italy would indeed stay in the EU.

Even so, in keeping with the two parties’ populist rhetoric, he also pledged to be the “defense lawyer” of the Italian people and protect their interests in Europe and abroad.

“[The speech] was a tool to demonstrate that the government would not be an adversary of European and international institutions, but you can find every element of populism in his discourse as well,” said Massimiliano Panarari, a politics professor at Rome’s Luiss University.

“What does Conte mean when he presents himself as a ‘lawyer of the people?’ It’s very artificial. He also has the problem of demonstrating to his political stakeholders—Di Maio and Salvini—that he will be close to their political desires and narrative.”

With Salvini and Di Maio pulling the strings, it is unlikely that Conte will have much influence. Mauro Calise, the politics professor from Naples, pointed out that Conte may be an expert in law, but those are not necessarily the skills he’ll need as prime minister.

“It’s not so much a matter of experience, which is important, but political autonomy. Conte has been put there from out of nowhere by these two leaders simply because neither one could agree on the other being prime minister—that’s the only reason he is there. It’s a mess,” added Calise.

Deep in the Red

The government will be under pressure to deliver the financial incentives promised to an austerity-weary electorate during the campaign. But with Italy’s public debt at more than 130 percent of GDP, there will inevitably be clashes with the EU.

The first key fiscal test will come in September, with the unveiling of an updated economic policy plan, followed by the drafting of the 2019 budget in October. Both will need approval from Brussels.

“Given the very limited margins available to the government on fiscal policy, the stringent EU deficit reduction requirements, and the fragile state of Italian public finances, even limited fiscal slippage could risk creating a conflict with the EU and undermining market confidence,” Federico Santi, an Italy analyst at Eurasia Group, wrote earlier this month.

In that respect, the government’s longevity will very much depend on how its navigates the financial challenges over the next six months.

“At the beginning they’ll try to make things smooth and not be too aggressive,” said Calise. “Europe will also be very cautious—they don’t want the Italian situation to explode. But once the honeymoon period is over and tough decisions need to be made, that’s when the difficulties will arise.”

If Conte succeeds in installing a government, then pundits forecast it faltering within a year. In that case, Di Maio and Salvini would inevitably eschew responsibility before readying themselves for new elections—and put the blame for any failures squarely on Conte. So even as concerns over the new Italian government run deep in Brussels, it might not be around all that long.

“This government is unlikely to prove stable in the medium-term,” Santi wrote in his note. “The two parties’ ideological differences, the challenges they will face given the limited fiscal space available, and the fact that the ‘mainstream’ parties’ retreat makes M5S and Lega natural rivals are all likely to create friction between them going forward. This creates a latent risk of early elections, possibly as early as Spring 2019. In any case, this government is unlikely to last a full five-year term.”

The post The Big Gamble appeared first on Berlin Policy Journal - Blog.

Artwork: © Dominik Herrmann

To outside observers, Luigi Di Maio, the immaculately groomed 31-year-old hoping to become Italy’s next prime minister, is as ambiguous as the Five Star Movement (M5S) he leads. Described as poised and reassuring, he is the antithesis of the rabble of rebels initially brought together by Beppe Grillo, the messy-haired, loud-mouthed comedian who founded the opposition movement in 2009 against a backdrop of economic decline and severe discontent with the traditional political class.

Yet ever since he was elected the youngest-ever deputy speaker of Italy’s lower house of parliament in 2013, Di Maio has shown signs of being as temperamental as 69-year-old Grillo, and equally prone to gaffes. An attempt last year to compare former prime minister Matteo Renzi to Augusto Pinochet fell flat after he referred to the late Chilean dictator as Venezuelan; in November he described Russia as “a Mediterranean country.” He has also made several linguistic and grammatical errors in his native Italian.

Blunders aside, in 2016 he was ranked among the most influential people in Europe under the age of 30 by Forbes magazine, and in September he became leader of the M5S after winning an online ballot. The party’s founder Grillo has always excluded running for office because of a 1980 manslaughter conviction after a car crash in which three people were killed. So with Renzi forced to quit after a botched referendum on constitutional reform in December 2016 and the ruling center-left Democratic Party in disarray, Di Maio can now position himself as a serious contender in the electoral race.

He was just 21 when he was brought along by a friend to participate in Grillo’s debut “V-Day” protest against corrupt politics, with the “V” standing for vaffanculo, the Italian word for “fuck off.” Di Maio was tasked with collecting signatures for a petition calling for politicians with criminal records to be banned from standing for parliament.

But it has been his ability to distance himself from the party’s bombastic, conspiracy-theorist, euroskeptic tone that has not only aided his meteoric rise but also broadened the party’s appeal to such an extent that it is now Italy’s most popular. Di Maio has pledged to “rescue” Italy, a country with a perennially sluggish economy, high unemployment, and huge public debt, not to mention a vast number of migrants who have arrived on its shores in recent years. Still, as he travels around the country garnering support ahead of general elections on March 4, he is facing the double challenge of disproving critics and convincing a weary electorate to place their faith in a party that has yet to be tested at the national level.

“There are those who continue to say that we are anti-politics,” Di Maio told me in an email. “But the reality is we are another type of politics. It’s their way of discrediting us, but if Italy is at the point it is today, the responsibility is certainly not ours.”

From Engineering to Politics

Born in Avellino, a town close to Naples in the southern Campania region, di Maio’s penchant for order emerged early, when he decided he wanted to become a policeman at the age of 10. That aspiration was influenced by his upbringing in a region ravaged by the Camorra mafia organization.

While his inclination towards activism might have been shaped by his father Antonio, a former construction firm owner who was involved in the now-defunct neo-fascist Italian Social Movement (MSI), their political views differed. Earlier this month Di Maio reiterated his party’s condemnation of fascist ideology after being criticized for not taking part in an anti-fascism protest in the northern town of Como.

The eldest of three siblings, Di Maio studied engineering at Naples University before switching to law, but never completed either course. He said he became civically and politically engaged while at high school and university, where he helped establish a students’ union. Di Maio’s work experience includes waiting tables and laboring on building sites, as well as a stint as a steward at a Naples football club. As a student, he co-founded a web and social media marketing firm, and in 2012 created a documentary about the demise of small businesses in Naples.
A car lover, Di Maio has said his entrepreneurial idol is Enzo Ferrari, the racing driver and founder of the iconic sports car company. Meanwhile, in the world of politics, he told Vanity Fair earlier this year that he looks up to Alessandro Pertini, a socialist politician who was Italy’s president from 1978 until 1985. Yet he himself generally represents the conservative side of the M5S.

Di Maio recently split from long-term girlfriend Silvia Virgulti, a party spin-doctor credited with nurturing his communication skills and boosting his image. “They say the love story is over but I think she’s still his adviser,” said Alberto Castelvecchio, a public speaking professor at Rome’s Luiss University. “He listens to his spin-doctors – he’s very disciplined and studies hard, and he respects what they suggest.”

Nonetheless, it’s when he speaks publicly that the inconsistencies surface, Castelvecchio added. “You can see the difference between the two Di Maios: one is the perfectly programmed storyteller, and the other – who comes out when he has to improvise – is the real Di Maio, who unfortunately is not as brilliant as his spin-doctor.”

His boyish, clean-cut look and moderate manner have helped the party gain a lead over its rivals in opinion polls since September, with an Ipsos survey on December 18 positioning M5S at 29.1 percent, ahead of the ruling Democratic Party’s 24.4 percent. “He looks perfectly designed to be the grandson every grandmother would like,” Castelvecchio added.

The Populist Challenge?

Di Maio’s skyrocketing popularity comes despite outcries over how badly M5S politicians have run Rome and the northern industrial city of Turin, a lackluster performance in local elections in June, and a defeat in Sicily’s regional elections in early November. And as things currently stand, there is little chance of the party winning the 40 percent of the vote required to govern alone. A new electoral law was recently introduced allowing parties to form coalitions ahead of an election – something the M5S has vehemently opposed.

That is, until now: in a sign of his ability to change tack, Di Maio told an Italian radio station on December 18 that if it fails to reach a majority on election day, M5S might appeal to parties that have won parliamentary seats to forge an alliance. Until then, a key test will be his ability to unite a group made up of militants from across the political spectrum while giving voters a clear impression of what the party represents.

Ever since the Brexit vote, the party has softened its stance towards Europe, saying a referendum on the euro would be a “last resort.” But it has become tougher on immigration, an issue that will dominate the campaign. The party’s views on the topic now appear to be more in line with the far-right Northern League, even though in 2011 Di Maio volunteered to help asylum-seekers in Naples settle in, according to his online CV. And even with the shift, M5S’ core values of free water, sustainable transport, sustainable development, free internet access, and environmentalism remain mostly intact.

If it manages to seize power, the party has said it will place ministerial posts in the steady hands of people with high institutional profiles – magistrates, economists, professors, and the like. But competence is not something that seems to bother those supporters drawn to the radical ideals that helped establish the party, and which are expected to help it emerge as a clear winner, at least in terms of vote percentage.

“It’s about revenge, not competence,” said Castelvecchio. “They are bitter about the kind of climate we have in Italy… and they want to send the cronies home.” Meanwhile Di Maio says he never set out to become a politician, and even now he is not dwelling much on the prospect of leading the country. “I’m committed to bringing forward a program, an idea, values… after which it will be up to citizens to choose which way to go.”

The post Close-Up: Luigi Di Maio appeared first on Berlin Policy Journal - Blog.