© REUTERS/Benoit Tessier

On the streets of Paris and cities across France over the holidays, it seemed that the country’s yellow vest movement had lost steam—until another eruption of violent protests on January 5. It is already clear, however, that the protests have left lasting scars on President Emmanuel Macron’s image, at home and abroad. That looks set to have a significant impact the 2019 European elections.

What started as a protest against a planned increase in fuel and diesel taxes—Macron has since cancelled those plans—turned into a revolt against the political elite, the distribution of wealth, and government policy. It was sparked in large part by people in rural areas who need their car to go to work. For them, the additional fuel tax would have made it even harder to make ends meet. They are among a growing group of French people who feel politicians in the capital have forgotten their needs.

Their anger has put Macron in a difficult position, grasping for answers to the most severe crisis he has had to face in office. Stéphane Wahnich, head of the Paris-based survey institute SCP communication, thinks Macron’s ways and style of communication will now have to change, and quickly.

“The French like their president to be a monarch—on condition that he doesn’t look down on them,” he said. “Macron will have to become a more classical president like the center-right Jacques Chirac, smoother and less populist. The times of his controversial comments are finished.”

Wahnich calls this a second term within the presidential term and predicts a reversal of Macron’s policies. “He will be obliged to implement more socially acceptable policies that are in favor of the poor,” he estimated.

A New Playbook

That will be necessary if Macron wants to right the ship. Since the beginning of the crisis in November 2018, the president’s popularity—already low—has plummeted. Only between 20 and 30 percent of the French have a positive opinion of him, according to a survey done by polling institute Ipsos on behalf of the magazine Le Point in late December; that’s compared to around 60 percent at the beginning of his term.

Meanwhile, Macron made significant concessions to the yellow vest protestors in a televised address, cancelling the planned taxes and announcing measures to boost workers’ income. However, right after his speech, more than 50 percent of those polled said they supported the demonstrators. More recent polls are showing that at least 60 percent of the French are still supporting the protesters.

“He waited until two seconds before the crash to take action. The fact that all this violence had to happen for him to respond is very damaging for his image,” said Bruno Cautrès from the Center for Political Research at Sciences Po University in Paris. He believes Macron won’t be able to regain his lost popularity.

The president has indeed come across as patronizing to many. He once told an unemployed person that it was easy to find a job—he just had to cross the street. And he called the French “Gauls who are resistant to change” and “lazy.”

Macron’s recent efforts to change his image and his policies probably won’t be enough to help him score high in European elections scheduled for May. A poll by IFOP on behalf of the newspaper L’Opinion shows that Macron’s party La République En Marche has lost ground since the protests began. Meanwhile, Marine Le Pen and her far-right Rassemblement National—formerly known as Front National—and the far-left Nouveau Parti anticapitaliste (NDA) have climbed in the polls.

“Macron has lost large parts of his aura,” said Philippe Marlière , a professor for French and European Politics at University College London. “He used to be seen as a modern, dynamic president who could reform France while having a balanced approach of left- and right-wing policies. But more and more, people realize that he’s less balanced than they thought and they doubt his ability to bring about change—in France and within the European Union.”

Running Out of Steam?

Macron’s EU reform plans could now indeed become even more difficult to push through. He has been pledging to establish a post for an EU finance minister, a sizable eurozone budget, and a separate eurozone Parliament to oversee economic policy.

But Germany’s Angela Merkel has so far agreed only to a rather small eurozone budget as part of the overall EU budget. And, with Macron’s struggles at home, she may have even more reason to be reluctant. Macron’s main argument had always been that he deserved support for EU reform in exchange for his success in reforming France. That success is now no longer assured. What’s more, Macron’s concessions to the yellow vest protestors are likely to push the French deficit above 3 percent of GDP, the Maastricht fiscal criterion. That sends the wrong signal to European partners, especially Germany.

Looking even further ahead to the next presidential elections in 2022, a rethink seems to be taking place among rival mainstream parties. “Up until now, the center-right Republicans had been on Macron’s side, but over the past few weeks, they have been harshly criticizing him. It looks like they have decided to go it alone and are already gearing up for their own election campaign,“ said political analyst Cautrès. Similar things are happening on the left, although the Socialist Party still needs more clarity on its exact strategy, he added.

Indeed, many analysts in France and Europe seem to largely agree that Macron’s leadership has taken a lasting hit. The president himself, though, seems to believe a relaunch of his presidency is still possible. During his recent announcements, he called the protesters’ anger a “chance” and the current times an “historic moment for the country.” The government has started national debates with protesters, trade unionists, and local politicians in the hope that doing so will help Macron regain his sheen and push through his plans for next year. Indeed, the president confirmed his determination to implement them in his New Year’s speech.

Yet these include reforms to housing benefits, the pension system, and unemployment insurance—benefits that many of the protestors have enjoyed until now. For example, people whose income has increased over the past year could lose state support for their rent. Macron intends to simplify the country’s pension system, aligning private and public pensions but still keeping the retirement age at 62; he also plans to reduce unemployment benefit payments and pension rights for the unemployed.

Those left out of pocket may not support the larger vision behind the reforms, and some are likely to head back to the barricades. The gilets jaunes movement is winding down, but the simmering anger at Macron could erupt again at any time, blocking any efforts to see through his agenda.

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© REUTERS/Philippe Wojazer

Outsiders looking at France from afar would be forgiven for thinking Emmanuel Macron is simply trying to shape up an inefficient company and make it internationally competitive. After all, France is required by European law to open up its state-owned passenger rail transport sector, which will happen successively over the coming 15 years.

The railway company SNCF therefore needs to shed its €50 billion debt—and abolishing railway workers’ quite generous benefits such as early retirement, higher pensions, and life-long job security is supposed to help the company get back on track.

But this is not only about figures—it’s about two opposing models of society. The strikers feel they are being made the scapegoats for years of misguided investments, especially in unprofitable high-speed routes, and they fear the reforms are a first step toward privatization. Their strike will last for three months—two days on, three days off. For now, three weeks into the walkout, 60 percent of the train drivers—crucial to keeping the system up and running—are participating.

The government denies there are any plans to sell the company. But waving the red rag of privatization gives the strikers a moral advantage.

“The SNCF is a symbol of the country’s public sector and the French are extremely proud of and attached to that,” said Bruno Cautrès from the Centre for Political Research at Sciences Po in Paris. “Many here are afraid that liberalizing the market will mean ticket prices will go up and the quality of the service will go down, and less-frequented train routes will be shut down. In their mind, privatization would make things even worse.”

Currently, six out of ten French are in favor of Macron’s railway reform—hardly enough to argue he has wide-ranging support. But Cautrès estimates that the numbers are likely to shrink in the medium term—once the effects of Macron’s policies begin to be felt.

The president will likely face even tougher terrain when it comes to reforms not yet tackled, such as the overhaul of the pension system and France’s unemployment insurance. The government aims to merge France’s different retirement systems and abolish benefits for specific parts of the population. The unemployed will be under stricter restrictions to make sure they are looking for a new job.

These reforms will come on top of a controversial labor law and lower taxes for investors. These reforms have been welcomed by entrepreneurs but stirred anger among some voters.

Plummeting Support

Macron’s approval ratings have faltered since he came to power. Now, 57 percent of the French are disappointed by his politics—compared to about 35 right after the elections last June. Cautrès says especially amongst left-wing voters, support has plummeted—and that that could be just the beginning.

“A lot of people haven’t made up their minds just yet. They do appreciate the country might need to be reformed, but they are not sure they are willing to live with the side effects—that is, the potential loss of the French social model, which for many is France’s defining feature.”

The railway workers are not the only ones to openly rebel against government policies. Other sectors have been on strike for weeks, including the postal service, waste collection services, electricians, and civil servants.

What’s more, students have been blocking various universities for weeks to protest a reform that will limit access for new students. Carla Bedouin, a 19-year-old history student at one of the paralyzed faculties, Nanterre University, where the May 1968 student revolt began, says she feels the country is at a turning point.

“Many people are beginning to wake up to what’s actually happening. The government is trying to erode our model of society and we will fight that,” she says.

Bedouin believes the growing frustration will lead to a “convergence des lutes,” or a convergence of protests: The different strike movements will merge and finally force the government to back down.

Lacking A Social Focus

Philippe Marlière, a professor of French and European politics at the University College of London, agrees that dissatisfaction with Macron’s policies is on the rise. He points to a lack of socially-oriented policies in the new president’s government.

“Macron campaigned on a platform of center-right, market-oriented politics combined with left-wing measures,” he explained.“But for now, I can’t see any left-wing measures.”

Instead, the president is opting for what many feel are repressive social policies.

Macron has enshrined the state of emergency into common law, giving the police wide-ranging powers and limiting civil liberties. And he is about to push through a new, tough immigration law that speeds up the asylum process—and deportation—for migrants. Aid associations fear it will turn France into a “proper expulsion machine,” as they have argued. There is open resistance, even among Macron’s own party in parliament for the first time since he came to power. More than a dozen La République en Marche MPs have been criticizing the draft for its “lack of humanity.”

This reminds many here of the so-called “frondeurs,” a group of rebel MPs under former socialist President François Hollande. Up to a third of his parliamentarians systematically voted against his laws as they felt his politics were too conservative.

Marlière says the rebellion against Macron could also gain further momentum—especially as he is more and more perceived as a right-wing politician.

On an international level, Macron has become the prototype of a modern statesman preaching a model for the future of left-wing parties. But at home, it starts to look like the French do not share his vision.

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© REUTERS/Robert Pratta

“We have the right to be proud to be French and should say so out loud!” It was a sentence that drew a roar from thousands of Marine Le Pen’s fans as she launched her election platform over the weekend. They showered her with standing ovations and chanted “Marine Présidente” and “On est chez nous” (“This is our country”).

At a party rally in Lyon, the leader of Front National had painted herself the savior of the nation in the face of terrorism and globalization. And she struck just the right chord with traditional FN voters who had traveled from wide and far to hear her speak.

Le Pen is banking on their support. She is aiming to pull off yet another surprise in what has already been one of France’s most extraordinary presidential election campaigns. But the road to victory seems to be rocky, to say the least.

So far, the presidential campaign has seen a series of twists and turns. Neither the Republican nor the Socialist presidential candidate – François Fillon and Benoît Hamon – had been expected to win their party’s primary elections. And neither of them might now stand a chance to become president. Instead, Le Pen is leading in the polls – at least when it comes to the first round of voting. She may well have to take on independent candidate Emmanuel Macron, whose ratings have unexpectedly been skyrocketing.

Polls are predicting Le Pen won’t win the second round of voting (the decisive run-off vote) whoever she faces. But she’s hoping to prove those figures wrong, and she’s doing so with a 144-point manifesto that reflects traditional FN policy lines – sovereignty, a strong state, an anti-immigration stance, and economic protectionism. It plays to right-wing populist and nationalist sentiment on the rise in France.

Yet at the same time, the manifesto appears to be softer than FN’s previous platform in the 2012 elections. Controversial measures have been toned down or dropped entirely. The return of the death penalty, for example, is no longer to be found. An exit from the eurozone is mentioned, but it no longer takes up a whole chapter. And anti-immigration measures like tougher penalties for foreign criminals are still part of the program but not as omnipresent as they used to be.

That’s a well-known FN strategy – the so-called “dédiabolisation.” By un-demonizing its image, the party has been able to gain significant ground in regional and local elections over the past few years. Emmanuelle Reungoat, political researcher at Montpellier University, believes it’s an easy ploy to pick apart.

“On closer inspection, this manifesto is along classic FN lines and even rather radical in certain points,” she observes. “The party is pledging for a very authoritarian society and party model that is everything but soft.”

Stiff Competition

Le Pen will also be facing stiff competition in Macron, the former economics minister. A central part of Le Pen’s appeal is that she depicts herself as an outsider to the system. After all, her party has never governed the country.

But Macron is also playing the outsider card. He says he identifies with none of the established parties and is running on an independent, market-orientated ticket. To many, his slogans sound more positive and inclusive than Le Pen’s doomsday messages against globalization.

The latest polls predict Macron will be second and no longer third in the first round of voting. If so, he would get through to round two – and beat Marine Le Pen, according to predictions.

Macron has of course been benefiting from yet another surprise of this election season. François Fillon, the Republican candidate who had been campaigned as “Mr. Clean,” has found himself embroiled in a financial scandal over alleged payments to his wife and children for work they didn’t do. Despite increasing pressure to drop out of the race, Fillon, apologizing to voters on Monday, is standing fast. Still, some disappointed Fillon supporters are seen as willing to vote for Macron.

And there is yet another candidate Le Pen should be watching – Benoît Hamon, the surprise winner of the primaries of the Socialist Party (PS). The PS is of course suffering from President François Hollande’s historically low approval ratings and has long been predicted to come fifth in the first round of voting. They are even expected to be outdistanced by the far-left candidate, Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

But the former education minister seems to have rebooted the socialists’ image, promising a “desirable future,” or the right to dream again. His message is not lost on French voters: Hamon is speaking out against austerity politics in a country where growth has been sluggish and unemployment high. He is proposing to further reduce working hours from 35 to 32 hours per week and introducing a universal monthly income of €750.

Hamon has now overtaken Mélenchon in the polls and is rising steadily, increasing his share of the vote from 8 to 17 percent. An alliance with the far-left candidate could boost him further. Victory no longer seems completely out of reach, says Bruno Cautrès from the Centre for Political Research at Sciences Po in Paris. “Don’t write him off too early – no-one knows what will happen next in this election campaign,” he warns.

That element of uncertainty could of course also benefit Le Pen. But Jean-Yves Camus, political analyst at the French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs, believes the party won’t be able to win. The reason: the FN is facing a Catch-22.

“The party would need to become a lot more mainstream to win the necessary more than 50 percent of the vote in the run-off. But at the same time, it needs to maintain its outsider image so as not to lose its core supporter base,” he says. “I think the FN is just designed to forever stay an opposition party.”

NB. German readers may want to visit the German Council on Foreign Relations’ “Frankreich Blog” (“Liberté, Égalité, Élysée”) for detailed comment and analysis of the French presidential elections.

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