© REUTERS/Eric Vidal

Not even Matteo Renzi could have bet that there would be 1.8 million voters taking part in the race to lead the center-left Democratic Party (PD) – and this is a politician often accused of being an arrogant risk-taker.

Lest we forget, the last time Renzi took a gamble it ended in bitter defeat. As prime minister he called a nationwide referendum on December 4 of last year to let voters decide on a series of constitutional changes. Nearly 60 percent slapped down his proposal, and Renzi swiftly resigned, as he had promised to do.

Ahead of the PD poll on April 30, Renzi appeared humbled, indicating he would consider even one million voters taking part a success. So it came as a great surprise when he ended up with more than 70 percent of the vote in the primary, far ahead of Justice Minister Andrea Orlando and Michele Emiliano, the governor of the southern Puglia region. Italian media pointed out that Renzi had received as many as 1.8 votes (on a turnout of 2.8 million) in the 2013 primary vote – which is true enough, but the ex-prime minister and former mayor of Florence had been facing a long and slippery road back to the top. The painful referendum defeat in December exposed deep fault lines within his party. In late February the PD’s left wing, led by Massimo D’Alema and Pierluigi Bersani, split off and formed a new party called the Progressive and Democratic Movement (MDP). That has complicated Renzi’s hopes for a comeback.

A glance at France’s presidential race and fellow centrist Emmanuel Macron could provide an important model for Renzi. The two have similar platforms and aims – after all, Renzi’s motto is “In Cammino,” a direct translation of Macron’s popular “En Marche!” After the PD primary Macron directly congratulated Renzi, tweeting: “Bravo à @matteorenzi “in cammino”/en marche lui aussi. Ensemble, changeons l’Europe avec tous les progressistes,” or “Bravo to Matteo Renzi ‘in cammino/en marche’ as well. Together let us change Europe with all the progressives.”

It didn’t take long for Renzi to tweet back: “@EmmanuelMacron Merci à toi cher Emmanuel! Nous sommes avec toi. Vive la France, vive l’Europe (que nous allons changer ensemble), or “@EmmanuelMacron Thanks to you dear Emmanuel! We are with you. Long live France, long live Europe (which we will change together).”

Renzi’s public support for Macron comes as he prepares his own ambitious campaign for Italy’s elections next February. It is no secret that Renzi would like to form a strong alliance with future President Macron, one that could stand up to Berlin and Brussels’ demands for rigid austerity policies that are widely unpopular in France and Italy. It was just September of last year that Renzi lashed out at the EU and Germany during a speech in New York, accusing Berlin of benefiting from draconian austerity measures that were destroying Europe. Macron, meanwhile, told an audience in Berlin he had registered French voters’ rage toward Europe and would take it into account.

A Dose of Reality

In in the center-left daily la Repubblica, Italian commentator Stefano Folli warned Renzi would do well to avoid the temptation for revenge, particularly because his latest victory still pales in comparison to the December referendum drubbing. Renzi had been brash and impetuous, grossly miscalculating the public mood, says Folli; he might repeat his mistake if he fails to examine the more troubling aspects of the primary poll.

Forty percent of those who cast their ballots were over 65, for example. And while Renzi did gain traction in the south of the country, he sustained big losses in the central “regioni rosse,” or red belt, region, once a stronghold of the communist PCI party until its split in 1991. Meanwhile, Folli points out that France’s socialist candidate Benoît Hamon also scored well in the primary, but his party suffered an historic collapse in the first round of the presidential election.

Hamon’s fate is part of a larger trend sweeping Europe as the traditional big parties witness their support dwindling. Philosopher and politician Massimo Cacciari argued in the weekly news magazine l’Espresso that these parties have forgotten their roots. At their conception, they helped shape the structures of the nation state – a state that developed a social system and facilitated the redistribution of wealth. Big parties were forced to confront each other and compete, and the ability to negotiate and compromise was a key pillar of policy-making. Now, says Cacciari, that pillar is vanishing.

“Today, party leaders declare themselves the direct representatives of the so-called people without having any organization behind them, and without understanding that these convoluted structures are the symptom of our democratic crisis, not the antidote,” he said.

In the liberal daily Corriere della Sera, journalist and politician Antonio Polito argues that the voters who selected Renzi to be PD chairman in April are not the same electorate that voted for him in 2013. Back then he garnered widespread support because of his popularity; the party also believed Renzi was the man to push back Beppe Grillo and his growing Five Star Movement (M5S). Today they know better: the PD is still trailing the M5S in the polls. Polito believes the Democratic Party is increasingly looking to secure the “capo” (mafia boss) votes, a move that strengthens Renzi but weakens the party on a whole.

One of the PD’s leading voices, politician and economist Michele Salvati, is more optimistic about their chances. He said that the high voter turnout in the primary would breathe life into the political landscape. Italian media are hotly debating who Renzi would choose as coalition partner if the PD were to win a majority next February: Could he mend ties with his erstwhile allies, Massimo D’Alema and Luigi Bersani, and join forces with their MDP party? Might Renzi look to the former Mayor of Milan, Giuliano Pisapia, and his Progressive Camp movement? Or is it even possible that he could turn to his archrival, scandal-plagued ex-prime minister and billionaire Silvio Berlusconi, to establish a majority?

Salvati believes all the wrangling over possible outcomes is irrelevant: “In the future, the political struggle will take place between two new camps: those for and against the EU.”

The post Back in Business appeared first on Berlin Policy Journal - Blog.

© REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque

It hasn’t exactly been an easy year for Europe. The Brexit vote dealt the EU a shocking blow. Nationalist movements are on the rise. And the refugee crisis has driven deep rifts across the bloc. Now, a looming referendum in Italy is threatening to become the EU’s next big headache – and the outcome is still very much uncertain.

On December 4, Italians will decide whether they are for or against reshaping the country’s constitution, and nerves are on edge. Prime Minister Matteo Renzi has dubbed this the mother of all reforms – landmark changes that will chart a new course for Italy in the coming decades. Renzi has argued that constitutional reforms are necessary to make Italy more modern and efficient, more compatible with the EU, and better equipped to face the challenges of a rapidly globalizing world.

The prime minister even staked his own political future on the plebiscite, initially vowing to step down if the country voted “no.” Renzi’s gamble looked like it would pay off earlier this year, when he was still seen as a powerful reformer. But confidence in him has eroded and his position now looks increasingly uncertain. The very referendum that was supposed to stabilize Italian politics might be derailed by political instability, with Renzi’s Democratic Party (PD) deeply divided heading into the vote.

The prime minister’s planned reforms would overhaul Italy’s current bicameral system, where two equally powerful chambers are constantly wrangling for power, making it near impossible to legislate. In the new system, the Chamber of Deputies would be tasked with votes of confidence and passing laws. The Senate, on the other hand, would be slimmed down considerably from 315 to 95 lawmakers. It would be responsible for constitutional amendments and for laws directly affecting Italy’s twenty regions, and it would be made up of regional and city representatives, though whether those representatives should be directly elected or selected by regional parliaments is still a point of contention.

Double the Trouble

Renzi’s troubles started back in April, when fifty lawyers and constitutional experts publicly rejected the prime minister’s plans. It wasn’t the constitutional reforms they were against, though – they were protesting the new, overhauled electoral law that Renzi’s government already pushed through in 2015. Italicum, as the electoral law is called, is a central part of the prime minister’s reform agenda and is meant to stabilize the coalition building process.

Under the law, if a winning party manages to get more than 40 percent of the vote, it automatically receives 55 percent of seats. If no party reaches forty percent, the two biggest parties face off in a runoff. Smaller parties are still represented in parliament as long as they get three percent of the vote, but they no longer wield the power to block governments from forming. Also, national party leaders now handpick the candidates they prefer to serve.

The law went into effect this July despite strong opposition, and is seen very much in tandem with the upcoming constitutional referendum. For many lawmakers, the twin reforms are a blow to democracy because they chip away at important checks and balances put in place after World War II, concentrating too much power in the hands of the prime minister.

Opposition to the constitutional reform has since grown steadily and, as Luciano Fontana, editor of the daily Corriere della Sera, pointed out, it has forged unlikely alliances: well-known lawmakers from Silvio Berlusconi’s fold, members of the former Christian Democrats (DC), representatives from the right-wing Lega Nord, neo-fascist parties like the Italian Social Movement (MSI) and Tricolour Flame, and the socialist Left Ecology Freedom (SEL) party are all in the fray. And then there are the members of the prime minister’s own PD, threatening to split the party down the middle.

Renzi is seen as arrogant and out of touch, driven by a constant need to intervene. Those qualities have rubbed many the wrong way in Rome, and the prime minister has built a healthy list of political enemies during his time in office.

The EU’s Next Problem Child?

The December 4 vote has thus turned into a plebiscite on Renzi rather than on constitutional reforms. The government has scrambled to refocus the discourse, but to little avail. Current polls indicate the vote will come down to the wire. Eugenio Scalfari, co-founder of the daily La Repubblica, believes Renzi’s political career both as head of the PD and of the government will be over if the “no” vote prevails.

Italy’s defense minister, Paolo Gentiloni, is already sounding the alarm over the possible fallout. If the “no” camp wins, he warns, the country would fast become the European Union’s next problem child. And this is coming at a time when Brussels sorely needs a stable and functioning Italy: Both France and Germany will be holding key general elections next year, with National Front leader Marine Le Pen in play for the French presidency and the populist Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) likely to secure enough votes to be represented in the Bundestag.

Culture minister Dario Franceschini (also of the PD) is urging voters to make Italy a beacon of light in troubled times. In a year when the Dutch (on a very low turnout) rejected an EU association deal with Ukraine, when Britain voted to leave the union, and when Hungary dismissed Europe’s refugee quota system, Franceschini argues that Italy is voting on a referendum that would make it a reliable partner abroad.

When in Doubt, Call Renzi

Italians love to play a leading role on the global stage, so they are particularly sensitive when left out in the cold. After Renzi publicly voiced frustration over the lack of progress at the EU summit in Bratislava, he was excluded from a post-summit powwow with Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel, France’s President François Hollande, and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker. It was seen as a rebuke in Rome.

So Renzi was all the more pleased to accept Barack Obama’s invitation to a state dinner at the White House. The president made a point of praising Renzi’s reforms and his economic policies – the very same policies that have defied Brussels and Berlin.

Obama’s endorsement didn’t go down well with the “no” camp in Italy. In a talk show, former leftist Prime Minister – and Renzi-foe – Massimo D’Alema called on Washington and Brussels to worry about their own affairs instead of Italian politics. But Italian politicians across the board have championed closer ties with partners abroad in recent years – even if that meant abiding by Brussels’ rules and norms.

In the run-up to the referendum however, says Danilo Taino, Corriere della Sera’s Germany correspondent, that very same perspective has fallen out of favor. The EU is seen as undemocratic and hostile. That, argues Taino, is a danger: Indulging in nationalist and opportunistic arguments means Italy is turning its back on the chance to play a big role in shaping Europe’s future.

The Day After

In Brussels and across Europe, there is growing speculation over the consequences of a “no” vote on December 4. Rumors are brewing of an emergency government and new elections. Whatever the outcome, Renzi has sealed his fate. It’s likely he realized the gravity of his decision after watching David Cameron’s post-Brexit vote demise – and that might be why he has started to backtrack on the question of his resignation in recent weeks. “We’ll continue to govern as we have until now, with the same numbers in the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies,” he was quoted as saying.

But if the “no” vote prevails, there will be no going back to the way things were, either for Renzi or the EU.

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