© REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach

Had Germans voted for the next US president, Hillary Clinton would have been a shoo-in, with close to three-fourths of voters opting for the former secretary of state. Thus when one of the United States’ closest allies woke up, it was, in the words of US Ambassador to Germany John B. Emerson, “a WTF moment.”

Bewilderment – and thinly disguised distrust – could also be felt in Chancellor Angela Merkel’s short statement. After congratulating President-elect Trump, she felt the need to remind the incumbent: “Germany and America are connected by common values: democracy, freedom, respect for the law and for human dignity irrespective of origin, skin color, religion, gender, sexual orientation or political conviction. On the basis of these values,” the Chancellor stressed, “I offer the future president of America, Donald Trump, a close working relationship.”

Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen called the result “a big shock,” and Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier sounded worried as well. “Above all I hope that the victory won’t lead to major upsets in international affairs,” he told the Bundestag’s Foreign Affairs Committee. “During his campaign Trump has criticized not only Europe, but Germany in particular. I believe we have to prepare ourselves for a US foreign policy becoming less predictable, and for a US that will be minded more often to act alone.”

Sigmar Gabriel, minister for economic affairs and energy and head of the Social Democrats, Merkel’s coalition partner, was less circumspect; he was quoted as describing the future US president as “a trailblazer of a new authoritarian, chauvinistic international.”

Meanwhile, the various German media outlets struggled to contextualize the result. The center-left Süddeutsche Zeitung called the Trump triumph an “epochal turning point for the world.” The paper’s chief foreign affairs commentator, Stefan Kornelius, described the Republicans as a radical and unpredictable party, and Trump, for want of a better word, as “bizarre” (“skurril”). The more conservative Frankfurter Allgemeine said that the result had injected “an overdose of unpredictability into world politics.”

The capital’s local newspaper, the Berliner Zeitung, did not hold back either, suggesting that the United States will become unrecognizable under the “narcissist from New York.” The German edition of the Huffington Post was even less constrained in its reaction, headlining a piece on Trump’s policy plans with “Apocalypse Now?” in capital letters.

Their editors weren’t the only ones resorting to (Hollywood) movie references. The magazine Stern saw America moving over “to the dark side,” and asked what the “most horrific” aspect of the election outcome was: That the majority of Americans trust a reality TV star more than a former secretary of state and senator and bought into the unrealistic promises of a notorious liar? Or that a seasoned politician like Hillary Clinton could not mobilize Democratic votes in areas that used to be reliably democratic?

News broadcaster n-tv described the election result as “the biggest ‘fuck you’ of all time.” What results this “American experiment” will bring are unclear at this point, its commentator added. “At least there will not be a civil war. Hopefully.”

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@yanisvaroufakis You left office about a year ago – any regrets? #i140c #eurocrisis

@berlinpolicy None whatsoever. Once it was no longer possible to do good for Greece as minister, there was no reason to stay in office.

@yanisvaroufakis Your proudest moment as #Greece’s Minister of Finance?

@berlinpolicy When a poorly dressed boy pointed me out to another boy & said: “This is the guy that gave our mum a card to buy groceries!”

@yanisvaroufakis Since you left, #Greek #euro crisis no longer dominating Europe’s headlines – #coincidence?

@berlinpolicy My departure ended a rebellion against debt bondage slavery. Slavery does not create headlines. A slaves’ revolt does.

@yanisvaroufakis Describe your relationship with Wolfgang #Schäuble.

@berlinpolicy An interesting relationship between finance ministers of a strong & a weak country who were equally powerless to do what was right.

@yanisvaroufakis Any takeaway from the #finger #boehmermann affair? #Varoufake

@berlinpolicy That satire is despised by despots and only appreciated deeply by humanists (even if it comes at a political cost to them).

@yanisvaroufakis You recently came out as an admirer of Margaret #Thatcher – elaborate. #oppositesattract

@berlinpolicy I admired something prescient once said by a political opponent. If we cannot do this, politics is inhuman.

@yanisvaroufakis You were once dubbed “Most interesting man in the world” by .@businessinsider – are you? #nofalsemodesty

@berlinpolicy If this is true, the world has become very boring.

@yanisvaroufakis You are critical of the #EU but pro-#European – how does that work?

@berlinpolicy In the same way that to be a good patriot you must often be searchingly critical of your government.

@yanisvaroufakis Do you think there would have been a #Brexit if there had been no #austerity?

@berlinpolicy No.

@yanisvaroufakis In 2015 you started democracy movement .@DiEM_25 in #Berlin. Do its aims fit into the current framework of the #EU?

@berlinpolicy DiEM25 believes that the EU is disintegrating. We must stabilize Europe’s economy first, before radically democratizing the EU.

@yanisvaroufakis Any realistic hope to fulfill .@DiEM_25 ‘s demands?

@berlinpolicy Did the initiators of the anti-slavery movement think their demand was utopian? You bet they did! So what? They succeeded.

@yanisvaroufakis Describe a day in the life of #Varoufakis.

@berlinpolicy Writing, reading, debating late in the day, and, at some point, chatting, watching, and listening with my partner-in-everything.

@yanisvaroufakis You’re a fan of #motorcycles. Favorite model and/or place to ride?

@berlinpolicy Yamaha XJR1300, coastal roads in northern and southern Attica, the Peloponnese plus wonderful B roads on Scotland’s West Coast.

@yanisvaroufakis What cause are you most passionate about today? #i140c

@berlinpolicy Democratizing Europe (against the troika’s will) in order to prevent a return of the 1930s in some vicious postmodern form.

Read more in the Berlin Policy Journal App – September/October 2016 issue.

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© REUTERS/Francois Lenoir

“Damn! Ein schlechter Tag für Europa” (“A bad day for Europe”). Sigmar Gabriel, Germany’s vice chancellor and economics minister, resorted to profanity when he took to Twitter to express his feelings at the news that the British, by a narrow margin, had voted to leave the European Union.

Damn! Ein schlechter Tag für Europa. #EUref

— Sigmar Gabriel (@sigmargabriel) 24. Juni 2016

At lunchtime, a somewhat shaken Chancellor Angela Merkel read out a prepared statement in the Chancellery, calling the British “no” vote a “turning-point for Europe and European integration.” She urged the remaining 27 EU members not to make any rash decisions, but to calmly consider the Union’s future course and arrive at “the right decisions” to carry the EU forward together.

“The EU is strong enough,” Merkel emphasized, while reminding listeners of the origins of European integration as a post-war peace project. The consequences of Britain leaving would only become apparent in the next “days, weeks, months, and years.” However, reforms are needed to enable the EU to demonstrate “how it improves the lives of EU citizens.”

Earlier, Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier had reacted diplomatically: “The early morning news from Great Britain are [sic] truly sobering. It looks like a sad day for Europe and the United Kingdom,” he tweeted, before inviting his colleagues from France, Italy, and the Benelux countries – the EU’s founding members – to an emergency meeting to Berlin on Saturday. Steinmeier’s and Gabriel’s Social Democrat (SPD) party, the junior partner in Merkel’s coalition government, called for the German Bundestag to hold an extraordinary session to discuss the news, which will take place on Tuesday.

All of Germany’s parties were in shock on Friday morning. Norbert Röttgen, a member of Angela Merkel’s CDU party and chairman of the Bundestag Foreign Affairs Committee, called Brexit “the greatest catastrophe in the history of European integration.” Dietmar Bartsch of the Left Party told Die Welt newspaper: “It is shocking that the shrill slogans of the Brexit supporters have become acceptable to a majority of people.”

“Out means out. It will be as in a real-life divorce,” said Elmar Brok, the CDU chairman of the European Parliament’s Foreign Affairs committee. “The British people will find out soon enough what that really means.”

Speaking at an event at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), Brok stressed that “we need to keep calm and see how we can come to a civilized relationship”; however, if the Swiss or Norwegian model is not acceptable – neither country is a member of the EU, but both are part of the European Single Market, which means that they subscribe to its principles, including free movement of labor, which Brexit supporters want to end – the United Kingdom “may end up with an association and partnership agreement not unlike what the EU has with Ukraine.”

However, mixing frustration (“I’m angry now, but anger is a bad counsel”) with hope, Brok pointed to the fact that Britain’s younger generation overwhelmingly voted for staying in the EU. “It’s important to keep the door open, too.” In any case, the EU now needs “to show that it can deliver,” with France, Germany, Italy, and Poland to take the lead.

Germany’s media were equally shattered. “A political earthquake in Europe” was the headline on Die Welt’s website. SPIEGEL magazine, which in an earlier edition had reached out to Britons (“Please Don’t Go”), called it “the big bang.” Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ) suggested that the British vote hinted at a problem that concerned not only the UK, but all of the Western world, pointing to the growing popularity of right-wing populist movements across Europe and the success of US presidential candidate Donald Trump.

Across Europe, right-wing populist indeed had a field day. Marine le Pen, leader of the right-wing Front National in France, tweeted “Victory” in capital letters, and Geert Wilders, leader of the anti-immigration Dutch Party for Freedom in the Netherlands, declared it would now be “our turn”. However, the president of the European Parliament, Martin Schulz, told German television network ZDF that the Brexit would “not lead to a chain reaction” across Europe, and the British example would not encourage other countries to “take this dangerous path.”

NB. This post was updated to include the statement by Chancellor Angela Merkel.

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Last week, US President Barack Obama joined Chancellor Angela Merkel in Hanover for the German trade fair for industrial technology, or CeBIT. Both are strongly advocating on behalf of TTIP, the transatlantic free trade agreement currently being negotiated by Brussels and Washington. Fearing the president’s visit could speed up talks, consumer protection bodies, environmental organizations, and other civil society groups organized one of the largest anti-TTIP demonstrations since negotiations began in 2013. According to the Hanover police, around 35,000 people joined the demonstrations, though organizers spoke of 95,000.

As the biggest export nation in Europe, Germany’s internal resistance to the trade agreement seems paradoxical to onlookers from abroad. EU Commissioner for Trade Cecilia Malmström expressed her amazement, saying she found the resistance “strange” and fears about the trade agreement “difficult to understand.” Der Spiegel reported that Malmström hopes President Obama’s visit will help to diffuse worries about the deal. Whilst TTIP is by no means an uncontroversial topic on either side of the Atlantic, German citizens seem particularly concerned about hidden dangers of the agreement.

What then are the protesters concerns?

A frequently cited reason for protest are fears of a loss of democracy as a result of the deal. TTIP regulations include provisions for an extrajudicial international court of arbitration to protect investors. Whilst it is not clear whether this will indeed be part of the final agreement, it would allow commercial investors to bypass existing national courts and sue states through these extrajudicial channels. These courts of arbitration are already part of various German trade agreements, but according to the TTIP opposition the new deal would effectively mean the “end of democracy” as a “shadow judiciary” would form and hollow out the democratic system. The worry is that private companies could indirectly influence policy making. Deutsche Welle cites one of the protesters in Hanover as saying: “You might as well let industry form part of the parliament and say: sure, go ahead!”

Since the EU commission failed to send documents detailing the status of TTIP negotiations to national parliaments in August last year, a lack of transparency has also been among the top causes of protest. According to DIE ZEIT, even the German Economics Minister Sigmar Gabriel joined protesters in their demands, writing a letter to Malmström that criticized her failure to provide updates and information on TTIP talks. Since then, Malmström has tried to counteract perceptions that the deal is being drawn up behind closed doors. An article by Süddeutsche Zeitung reports on Malmström’s efforts to increase transparency: the trade commissioner pointed out that official documents relating to the negotiations are available online and at the German Ministry of Economics. Nevertheless, protesters continue to attack the negotiations for lack of transparency, portraying TTIP as a Trojan horse designed to further the interests of big business alone. In a video podcast, the German chancellor rejects such criticism, stating it was impossible to make negotiations even more transparent than they already are.

The third top reservation about TTIP concerns worries about product standards, consumer protection, and labor market regulations. German environmentalists, for instance, see it as their responsibility to oppose TTIP and protect citizens against environmentally and medically controversial foods from the US. Genetically modified crops, chickens bathed in chlorine, and pesticides that are banned in Germany could be allowed to enter the German market should the deal be ratified, say anti-TTIP campaigners. But it is not just the environmentalists who worry the deal would negatively affect German consumers. According to Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ), 48 percent of Germans think consumer rights would be negatively affected by the deal, and only 26 percent believe it would have a positive effect on the German economy. According to DIE ZEIT, however, negotiations are slow and difficult not because negotiators are trying to appease critics but because both the EU and the US are unwilling to open their markets to each other quite as much as originally planned.

An article in Der Tagesspiegel suggests that protests may be fueled by anti-Americanism rather than real concerns about the trade agreement, and holds Campact, the main organizer of anti-TTIP protests, responsible for spreading unfounded fears about the deal. DIE ZEIT, however, reports Campact CEO Christoph Bautz expressively denying this as the organization’s motivation, and cites him as saying that he was actually worried that “people with anti-American resentments” could join the demonstration.

Merkel supports TTIP and sees the agreement as hugely beneficial for German and European economic futures. However, according to Der Spiegel, even her own vice chancellor Sigmar Gabriel would secretly like to call off negotiations, as TTIP is hugely unpopular amongst social democrats. At CeBIT he criticized the US for refusing to open its markets, stating that “free trade only makes sense if the markets are actually open,” reports FAZ. Sarah Wagenknecht from the leftist party Die Linke called for a referendum on TTIP, arguing that the government should not be allowed to close a deal that is opposed by the majority of the population.

Both supporters and critics of the deal feel time is of the essence: those in favor of TTIP hope for a swift conclusion of negotiations to avoid a delay of the deal under a new American administration in 2017. Those opposing are also aware of the time pressure, and trying to prevent an acceleration of the process. DIE ZEIT interpreted Obama’s and Merkel’s words at the Hanover trade fair to hurry TTIP along as a sign that they are no longer confident that negotiations will be concluded under the Obama administration.

Shortly after Obama’s visit Greenpeace published secret documents on the state of negotiations. FAZ reports that these documents do not actually offer any new information – it is an unfinished version of the draft contract and none of the concerns of the opposition are fully verified or proven wrong. Nor are the US or EU ngeotiating positions news to anyone who has been following the debate. Yet they show how far apart the two would-be trade partners really are. As Der Spiegel reports, even those in favor of the deal are growing pessimistic that TTIP will be achieved.

The post The TTIP Controversy appeared first on Berlin Policy Journal - Blog.

Paper Trail

Since the release of the so-called “Panama Papers”, German politicians have been rushing to assign blame and suggest future reforms. The Greens’ parliamentary leader Katrin Göring-Eckardt held the federal government responsible, saying it blocked efforts to improve control over financial service providers in Europe. She called for official international registers listing the beneficiaries of individual businesses. Germany’s Minister of Justice Heiko Maas, from Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Social Democrat (SPD) coalition partner, declared that “the secrecy must come to an end,” and claimed adjustments of the money laundering act would improve transparency in the financial sector. SPD finance expert Joachim Poß suggested that a standard fee should be introduced for banks that are involved in “non-transparent” business transactions.

Some reactions were more flippant: “I cannot understand what #Putin needs money for,” tweeted DIE ZEIT Deputy Editor Bernd Ulrich.

It remains unclear, however, whether and in how many cases the leaks revealed business transactions that are actually illegal according to current law.

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/steuervermeidung/deutsche-politiker-fordern-nach-panama-papers-konsequenzen-14161145.html#/elections

Mali Mission

Minister of Defense Ursula von der Leyen said the German military will not become involved in UN military action against terrorists in Mali, which has been underway since 2013. Upon her arrival in the capital city of Bamako she declared this to be the responsibility of the French operation “Barkhane”. German soldiers will, however, remain involved in the UN and EU missions to stabilize the region, support the political process, and protect civilians.

This remains a highly difficult and dangerous task, particularly in the North of the country – more than 70 UN soldiers have been killed so far. This round of violence began in January 2012, when armed groups in the North, some of them former combatants in Libya, began attacking government forces; these government forces, in turn, staged a coup in March, suspending the constitution and installing a military regime. With the help of the Economic Community of West African States, a national unity government was installed in August. The United Nations has been working to build the government’s capacities during this transition.

Berlin has beefed up its assistance to France in Mali in the wake of last November’s terror attacks on Paris in order to facilitate the French government’s intensified fighting the so-called Islamic State (IS) in Syria.

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/ausland/afrika/von-der-leyen-schliesst-bundeswehr-beteiligung-in-mali-aus-14160961.html

Sibling Rivalry

Horst Seehofer, head of the CDU’s Bavarian CSU sister party and perhaps the most vocal critic of Angela Merkel’s handling of the refugee crisis, is still unhappy with the German chancellor. He holds the closing of the Balkan route responsible for the recent decrease in arrivals, not any policy of Merkel’s, and reacted poorly to Interior Minister Thomas de Maizière’s suggestion that border controls could be done away with once more in the foreseeable future. “Despite being the state most affected, we were not consulted or informed,” he grumbled, describing de Maizière (and, by implication, the chancellor), as “high-handed”.

Seehofer has been a frequent thorn in Merkel’s side since the beginning of the refugee crisis, maintaining what has been called a “parallel foreign policy” with outspoken critics of the chancellor, including Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Russian President Vladimir Putin. He lags her significantly in polls, however, holding a 52 percent disapproval rating compared to 56 percent who approve of the job Merkel is doing.

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/horst-seehofer-neuer-aerger-vor-koalitionsgipfel-von-cdu-csu-und-spd-a-1085781.html

Trouble at the Top

Frauke Petry, head of the Alternative für Deutschland party and the right-wing populists’ public face, seems to be increasingly isolated from her colleagues: she is hard to find on her party’s website, and has been involved in public fights with other party leaders. AfD members blame her go-it-alone style, saying she has become increasingly egocentric. That being said, the AfD was still riding (relatively) high in last week’s polls, with 14 percent of the vote.

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/afd-frauke-petry-ist-zunehmend-isoliert-a-1085534.html

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